659
FXUS66 KMFR 081856
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1156 AM PDT SUN MAR 8 2026
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.
AVIATION...08/18Z TAFS
MOST OF THE MORNING LOWER CONDITIONS HAVE
BECOME VFR IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DISTINCT FRONT TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR (NW OF THE
CASCADES/SISKIYOUS) AS THE FRONT PRESSES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT,
IT'LL BRING A HEALTHY MARINE PUSH TONIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR (LOCAL IFR/LIFR) CEILINGS, HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH/WEST OF THE SISKIYOUS/CASCADES (40-60% CHANCE). BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ON NORTH-FACING SLOPES. HERE IN
MEDFORD, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOWER, ABOUT 10-20% AND
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE CEILING WILL EVEN LOWER TO MVFR.
THERE IS ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OR FIRST
THING MONDAY MORNING (2500 FT OR SO). SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSBILE
ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING, BUT THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. WE DO EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
IN MOST OF THESE AREAS LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON, BUT SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD PERSIST NW OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS, ASIDE FROM
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND PRIOR TO NOON MONDAY, VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SUNDAY, MARCH 8, 2026
THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, CHOPPY SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS TO
THE NORTH. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL (60% CHANCE) FOR VERY STEEP,
SHORT PERIOD SEAS (10-11 FT AT 7 SECONDS) SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO STRONGER NORTH WINDS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS THE DOMINANT WIND SEAS
TRANSITION TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. EVEN SO, THE WNW SWELL
ARRIVING WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (10 FT AT 12-13
SECONDS). THIS SWELL DECAYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO SW. MID-LATE WEEK, GUIDANCE SHOWS A FRONT STALLING
NEARBY TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE WINDIER, MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE NORTH, BUT WITH ADDITIONAL WESTERLY SWELLS
MOVING THROUGH. -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 355 AM PDT SUN MAR 8 2026/
KEY POINTS...
- WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY.
- A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WEST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
- COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOW
SNOW LEVELS (1200-2000 FT). HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY EXCEPT FOR CHANCES OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT THE COAST,
IN THE UMPQUA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CASCADES.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION...
TODAY, THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG
THE COAST AND IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST,
FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY FOR MANY AREAS. THEN, A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES WEST.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.
AS THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, IT WILL
ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. FOR MONDAY NIGHT,
MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO -3 TO -6 DEG C FROM
THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WEST. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
(NBM) THIS TO INDICATES SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FROM 6000-7000+ FEET
THIS EVENING, DOWN TO 2500-4500 FT MONDAY THEN TO 1200-2500 FEET
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA, EXCEPT
FOR CHANCES (30-70%, HIGHEST ALONG THE COOS COAST) FOR VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST, IN THE UMPQUA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADES. OVERALL, THE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO STAY
MAINLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE AREA.
COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NBM INDICATES
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MANY VALLEYS WEST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. EAST OF THE
CASCADES, EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY BRING MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH AND
INTO THE AREA. THE NBM SHOWS CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. HIGHEST
CHANCES (40-70%) ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES
WEST WITH LOWER CHANCES (15-30%) EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH (5000-6500
FEET) AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WILL LIKELY LIGHT (TO
LOCALLY MODERATE FOR FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA, SUCH AS
NORTHERN COOS AND NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES).
AVIATION...08/12Z TAFS...
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING, IFR/LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST AND FOR VALLEYS INLAND OF THE COAST IN COOS, CURRY,
DOUGLAS, JOSEPHINE AND WESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES (INCLUDING NORTH
BEND AND ROSEBURG). LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
AROUND 18-21Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IFR/MVFR PERSISTING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHALLOW FOG AT MEDFORD AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THEN, A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BRING A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR (AND LOCAL
LIFR) TO THE COAST AND UMPQUA VALLEY.
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST SUNDAY, MARCH 8, 2026...THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, CHOPPY SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS TO
THE NORTH. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL (60% CHANCE) FOR VERY STEEP,
SHORT PERIOD SEAS (10-11 FT AT 7 SECONDS) SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO STRONGER NORTH WINDS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS THE DOMINANT WIND SEAS
TRANSITION TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. EVEN SO, THE WNW SWELL
ARRIVING WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (10 FT AT 12-13
SECONDS). THIS SWELL DECAYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO SW. MID-LATE WEEK, GUIDANCE SHOWS A FRONT STALLING
NEARBY TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE WINDIER, MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE NORTH, BUT WITH ADDITIONAL WESTERLY SWELLS
MOVING THROUGH.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR PZZ356-376.
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