174
FXUS66 KMFR 082333
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
433 PM PDT SUN MAR 8 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...08/00Z TAFS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT FRONT
TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR (NW OF THE
CASCADES/SISKIYOUS) AS THE FRONT PRESSES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT,
IT'LL BRING A HEALTHY MARINE PUSH TONIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR
(LOCAL IFR/LIFR) CEILINGS, HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS AND PERHAPS A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND TO THE NORTH/WEST OF
THE SISKIYOUS/CASCADES (40-60% CHANCE). BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE ON NORTH-FACING SLOPES. HERE IN MEDFORD, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE LOWER, ABOUT 10-20% AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE CEILING
WILL EVEN LOWER TO MVFR. THERE IS ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF THAT
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT OR FIRST THING MONDAY MORNING (2500 FT OR
SO). SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES.
WE DO EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN MOST OF THESE AREAS LATE MONDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON, BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD PERSIST NW OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE.
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS, ASIDE FROM
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND PRIOR TO NOON MONDAY, VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL. -SPILDE/BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 227 PM PDT SUN MAR 8 2026/
DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF WEST SIDE
VALLEYS, ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES.
ONSHORE FLOW MAY HELP MARINE STRATUS OR FOG RETURN TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. VALLEY FOG IS MORE QUESTIONABLE, AS THIS FLOW ALOFT
LOOKS TO PUSH MOISTURE FARTHER INLAND. THIS MOISTURE CAN WORK
AGAINST FOG BY INSULATING INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT, PREVENTING
RADIATIVE COOLING THAT ALLOWS FOG TO DEVELOP. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THAT FALL CAN PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL. AND THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE FROM UNDER A RIDGE TO
ZONAL FLOW, WHICH WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY (IF ONLY SLIGHTLY). SO
WHILE PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, FOG TO THE EXTENT OF SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IS UNLIKELY.
THAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL GUIDE MOISTURE TO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
(20-40%) ARE PRESENT ALONG COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY TO THE CASCADES TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE CHANCE OF
SOME MOISTURE MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING LIGHT SHOWERS. BUT
OVERALL, PRECIPITATION EXPECTATIONS ARE MINIMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN
ADDITION TO THIS AREA BEING SOUTH OF THE MOISTURE FLOW, AN ABSENCE
OF ATMOSPHERIC MECHANISMS WOULD MAKE ANY SHOWERS RELY ON OROGRAPHIC
LIFT. THIS WOULD GENERALLY KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER
COASTAL RANGES OR THE CASCADES. A COMPACT GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A PACIFIC RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS OVER AREA TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT THESE WINDS REMAIN SHORT OF ADVISORY SPEEDS.
TO LOOK AT SOME SPECIFICS IN THE WEEK AHEAD, THE DEVELOPING ZONAL
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE DAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS. AT NIGHT, COOL LOW TEMPERATURES MAY CAUSE SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE COOLEST
OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE
LOWS OF 33 TO 36 DEGREES, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROSTY CONDITIONS.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY PRESENT BRIEFLY IN THE FORECAST, SO THERE
IS NOT THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE ANY FULL PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. WEST
SIDE VALLEYS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 30S, WHILE EAST SIDE AREAS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. WITH THIS COLD AIR, FORECAST SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO 1000-2000 FEET ON TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE BROAD AREA
OF SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SNOWFALL MAY BE INDICATED. HOWEVER,
THESE CHANCES ARE BEST OVER AREAS TERRAIN AND WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE
MEASURED IN THE HUNDRETHS. WINTER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NONEXISTENT.
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, FRONTS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH BUT MAY PUSH
ON THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD BRING THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
STREAM CLOSER, BRINGING SHOWER CHANCES OVER CURRY COUNTY AND
INCREASING THEM OVER COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TO THE CASCADES. WITH
SNOW LEVELS FORECAST TO BE BACK UP TO THE 6000+ FOOT RANGE BY THIS
POINT, ANY SNOWFALL WOULD BE LIMITED TO AREA PEAKS AND RIDGELINES.
OVERALL, POSSIBLE VARIATIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND UPPER
RIDGE/TROUGH POSITION ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN FORECAST
CONDITIONS. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT SUNDAY, MARCH 8, 2026...THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, CHOPPY SEAS
ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER
SEAS TO THE NORTH. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR VERY STEEP, SHORT PERIOD SEAS (10-11 FT AT 7 SECONDS)
SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO STRONGER
NORTH WINDS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS THE
DOMINANT WIND SEAS TRANSITION TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. EVEN
SO, THE WNW SWELL ARRIVING WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (10 FT AT 12-13 SECONDS). THIS SWELL DECAYS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW. MID-LATE WEEK, GUIDANCE
SHOWS A FRONT STALLING NEARBY TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
CORE OF THE WINDIER, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE NORTH, BUT WITH
ADDITIONAL WESTERLY SWELLS MOVING THROUGH.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
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