596
FXUS66 KMFR 091007
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
307 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
DISCUSSION
ONSHORE FLOW HAS PUSHED PLENTY OF MARINE MOISTURE
INLAND THIS MORNING, WITH CLOUD BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE SISKIYOUS.
THE EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS PREVENTED FOG FORMATION FOR
MOST AREAS, BUT WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FOG WHERE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALSO
ACCOMPANIED THIS MARINE PUSH, BUT HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT. THAT FALL
CAN PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL GUIDE MOISTURE TO THE PACIFIC
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA, WHERE A FRONT WILL
BECOME STALL OUT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH OUR FORECAST AREA
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF MOISTURE FLOW, MOST RAIN WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH AS WELL. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE A RESULT OF TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT,
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, OVER COASTAL RANGES, AND ALONG THE
CASCADES.
ALSO, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS TO ALLOW FOR BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS OVER
AREA TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH
A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION...08/12Z TAFS
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE
SISKIYOUS DUE TO A STRONG MARINE PUSH. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN THAT GETS SQUEEZED OUT ALONG NORTH FACING SLOPES, BUT MOST OF
THE AREA REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IN MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON, BUT SOME MVFR
CEILINGS COULD PERSIST NW OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS, ASIDE FROM
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY, MARCH 9, 2026
THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, CHOPPY SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS TO
THE NORTH. SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BRING VERY STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS. WIND
WAVE DOMINATED SEAS TRANSITION TO STEEP WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL ON
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY INCREASED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THEN STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR NORTH.
THIS WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE WINDIER, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
THE NORTH, BUT WITH ADDITIONAL WESTERLY SWELLS MOVING THROUGH.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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