150
FXUS66 KMFR 092122
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
222 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
DISCUSSION
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A CONSTANT FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEK AHEAD. ONSHORE FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUD COVER TO BANK UP
AGAINST THE CASCADES AND REMAIN OVER WEST SIDE AREAS WHILE SKIES TO
THE EAST ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCES (10-30%) OF PRECIPITATION
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AND CASCADES THROUGH THE WEEK. IN TIMES
WITHOUT AN ATMOSPHERIC MECHANISM, ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL COME FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THIS WILL KEEP MOST SHOWERS LIGHT AND OVER THE
COAST OR TERRAIN, WITH MINIMAL ACTIVITY OVER WEST SIDE VALLEYS.
COLD AIR MOVING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW IS KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS. TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE NEAR FROST
LEVELS AND LOCAL FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WEST SIDE VALLEYS
WILL BE IN THE HIGH 20S (NORTHERN CA) TO MID 30S (ROSEBURG), AND
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND SLIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE SNOW
SHOWERS "POSSIBLE" FOR SOME WEST SIDE AREAS TONIGHT, AS SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AND AMOUNTS LIGHT ENOUGH THAT
ACTUAL SNOWFALL WILL BE RARE. COOL CONDITIONS AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES START TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
WARM FRONT ARRIVING AT THE COAST WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES OVER
CURRY, COOS, AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AS WELL AS ALONG THE CASCADES, BUT
ANY RAINFALL/MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE, BUT NOT TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL
SEE HIGHER WINDS, WITH GUSTS IN EAST SIDE BASINS POSSIBLY REACHING
20 MPH WHILE WINDS OVER TERRAIN MAY REACH UP TO 40-45 MPH. THIS
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING BREEZES AND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MAY LAST INTO SATURDAY.
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
AND THE CASCADES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW STAYS IN
PLACE. ON SATURDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS FARTHER
INLAND, BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND WINDS LOOK UNIMPACTFUL.
THERE'S SOME AGREEMENT IN LONG-TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT A PACIFIC
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT, BRINGING
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. -TAD
AVIATION...08/18Z TAFS
LOTS OF VFR CEILINGS TODAY AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FEET WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST BRIEFLY REPORTING MVFR
CEILINGS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR PLENTY OF CUMULUS BUILD UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS COOLER MOIST AIR MOVES OVER LAND AND THE THIS MID MARCH
SUN ANGLE DESTABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WE SHOULD SEE MORE VFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT.
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, MARCH 9, 2026
STEEP CHOPPY
SEAS AND STRONG WINDS HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER CRAFTS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH
OF PORT ORFORD WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS TO THE NORTH.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING COULD BRING VERY STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS. WIND WAVE
DOMINATED SEAS TRANSITION TO STEEP WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL ON TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY INCREASED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS A
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THEN STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS
WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE WINDIER, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
NORTH, BUT WITH ADDITIONAL WESTERLY SWELLS MOVING THROUGH.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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