381
FXUS66 KMFR 100531
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1031 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...09/06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOWER END VFR CEILINGS, AND PERHAPS
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS, ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE
UMPQUA BASIN AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 08Z-12Z
TONIGHT. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
CASCADES/FOOTHILLS AND THE SISKIYOUS AS NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW
KEEPS STRATUS BANKED UP THERE. OTHERWISE, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. /BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 844 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026/
DISCUSSION...THE SHOWERS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT
TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THE ONE CHANGE
MADE TO THE FORECAST IS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT HAVE
BEEN INCREASED. SATELLITE SHOWS A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THIS CLOUD
COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL
BE IN THE MID-30S, LOW 30S FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, AND 20S/LOW 30S
FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -HERMANSEN
MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT MONDAY, MARCH 9, 2026...GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS TRANSITION TO STEEP WEST-
NORTHWEST SWELL ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY INCREASED SOUTH WINDS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THEN STALLS
OUT JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FLORENCE, BUT STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WITH VERY STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE NORTH OF
REEDSPORT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. /BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST...
AVIATION...09/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH 3500 TO 4500 FT CEILINGS ARRIVING BETWEEN 04Z-06Z AT THE COAST
AND IN THE VALLEY NEAR ROSEBURG. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT
THE COAST (NORTH BEND) NEAR 08Z AND ROSEBURG NEAR 12Z. THE SHOWER
CHANCES WILL MOVE NORTH BUT STILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH BEND AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. -HERMANSEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026/
DISCUSSION...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A CONSTANT FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEK AHEAD. ONSHORE FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUD COVER TO BANK UP
AGAINST THE CASCADES AND REMAIN OVER WEST SIDE AREAS WHILE SKIES TO
THE EAST ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCES (10-30%) OF PRECIPITATION
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AND CASCADES THROUGH THE WEEK. IN TIMES
WITHOUT AN ATMOSPHERIC MECHANISM, ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL COME FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THIS WILL KEEP MOST SHOWERS LIGHT AND OVER THE
COAST OR TERRAIN, WITH MINIMAL ACTIVITY OVER WEST SIDE VALLEYS.
COLD AIR MOVING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW IS KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS. TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE NEAR FROST
LEVELS AND LOCAL FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WEST SIDE VALLEYS
WILL BE IN THE HIGH 20S (NORTHERN CA) TO MID 30S (ROSEBURG), AND
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND SLIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE SNOW
SHOWERS "POSSIBLE" FOR SOME WEST SIDE AREAS TONIGHT, AS SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH AND AMOUNTS LIGHT ENOUGH THAT
ACTUAL SNOWFALL WILL BE RARE. COOL CONDITIONS AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES START TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
WARM FRONT ARRIVING AT THE COAST WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES OVER
CURRY, COOS, AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AS WELL AS ALONG THE CASCADES, BUT
ANY RAINFALL/MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE, BUT NOT TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL
SEE HIGHER WINDS, WITH GUSTS IN EAST SIDE BASINS POSSIBLY REACHING
20 MPH WHILE WINDS OVER TERRAIN MAY REACH UP TO 40-45 MPH. THIS
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING BREEZES AND GUSTS LOOKS TO BE BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MAY LAST INTO SATURDAY.
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
AND THE CASCADES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW STAYS IN
PLACE. ON SATURDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS FARTHER
INLAND, BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND WINDS LOOK UNIMPACTFUL.
THERE'S SOME AGREEMENT IN LONG-TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT A PACIFIC
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT, BRINGING
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. -TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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