186
FXUS66 KMFR 110543
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1043 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...11/06Z TAFS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BRING FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK FOCUSED IN NW OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE BLOWING PERPENDICULAR
TO THE CASCADES AND WARNER MTNS (WESTERLY COMPONENT) AND COULD BRING
SOME MID-LEVEL MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF TURBULENCE NEAR
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO DURING ASCENT/DECENT INTO THE TERMINALS.
THIS IS ALSO LEADING TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL VFR
ALTOCUMULUS/ALTOSTRATUS. WSW WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND OVER THE EAST SIDE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING (25-35 KT).
THE ONLY PLACE WHERE MOISTURE COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION (AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS) WILL BE AT THE
COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALSO PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. EVEN IN THOSE AREAS, SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY HIT-OR-MISS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY
WAVER BETWEEN MVFR/VFR. SHOWER CHANCES SHIFT NORTHWARD LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUESDAY, MARCH 10, 2026
STEEP WEST-
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOME GUSTY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH STEEP TO POSSIBLY
VERY STEEP SEAS AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER NORTH OF REEDSPORT. WHILE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY EVENING, THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK
SOUTHWARD AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY. -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 506 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...10/00Z TAFS...WHILE A FAIRLY BENIGN TAF PERIOD IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY DUE TO STRONGER WEST
WINDS ALOFT WHICH ARE BLOWING PERPENDICULAR TO THE CASCADES AND
WARNER MTNS. THIS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF TURBULENCE DURING
ASCENT/DECENT INTO TERMINALS, BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERALL, IT'S ALSO LEADING TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL VFR
ALTOCUMULUS/ALTOSTRATUS.
THE ONLY PLACE WHERE MOISTURE COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION (AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS) WILL BE AT THE
COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALSO PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. EVEN IN THOSE AREAS, SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY HIT-OR-MISS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY
WAVER BETWEEN MVFR/VFR.
WSW WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY OVER THE
EAST SIDE (GUSTS TO 25 KT), THEN EVEN A BIT GUSTIER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING (25-35 KT). -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026/
SYNOPSIS... A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN CALIFORNIA WILL BE AT RISK FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...
WE'RE WATCHING SOME CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS ALONG THE OREGON COAST NEAR FLORENCE. THE MAJORITY OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AS A STRONG
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HITS LOCATIONS IN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
OREGON. THE COASTAL AREAS AND LOCATIONS IN DOUGLAS COUNTY WILL SEE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BY THURSDAY MORNING, NORTH BEND COULD GET A QUICK
0.15 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH IT WILL MOSTLY BE A FEW
HUNDRETHS HERE AND THERE.
WITH THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW, WE WERE WATCHING THE WIND THREAT EAST
OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE AND OTHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
CASCADES. 700 MB WIND FLOW IS APPROACHING 50 KNOTS IN NORTHERN
LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. HOWEVER, UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW
MODEST MIXING AND DON'T MIX UP TO 700 MB. WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF WIND GUSTS AROUND THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE, BUT ANYTHING
ABOVE 45 SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THEREFORE, WE OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, HOWEVER SOMEONE ELSE
MIGHT SEE THINGS DIFFERENTLY.
EVENTUALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL OREGON RESULTING
IN SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENTLY, THE NBM IS FORECASTING A HIGH OF 68 IN MEDFORD AND
PERHAPS SOME LOWER 70'S IN CALIFORNIA WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID 50'S AROUND SALEM. THE AIR WILL BE DRIER AS THIS FRONT
MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY AND
PRETTY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
EVENTUALLY, A 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HEIGHTS REACHING 590DM IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD INTO SOME UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX(EFI) IS SHOWING 0.8
OVER LARGE AREAS WITHIN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS WARM UP NEXT WEEK
BETWEEN DAYS 6 AND 10. RIGHT NOW, WE'RE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70'S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH A 5 TO 15% CHANCE OF
HITTING 80 HERE IN MEDFORD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS, ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
LIKE ALTURAS AND MONTAGUE WILL BE AT RISK ON THE 16TH.
OVERALL, NOT GOOD FOR WHATEVER SNOW PACK IS LEFT.
-SMITH
AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
WHILE CEILINGS MAY APPROACH OR REACH MVFR AT TIMES, WE REALLY ARE
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A PREDOMINATELY VFR FORECAST WITH KRBG, KMFR,
AND KLMT SEEING VFR CHANCES AROUND 85%-95% THROUGHOUT THE CYCLE.
HOWEVER, NORTH BEND DOES HAVE A 20%-30% CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY
AT TIMES, BUT SPEEDS WILL CALM DOWN AROUND/AFTER SUNSET.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT TUESDAY, MARCH 10, 2026...STEEP WEST-
NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED
SOUTH WINDS TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
BEFORE STALLING TO OUR NORTH. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FLORENCE, BUT STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WITH VERY STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE NORTH OF
REEDSPORT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
-GUERRERO
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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