289
FXUS66 KMFR 111008
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
308 AM PDT WED MAR 11 2026
DISCUSSION
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ALONG THE COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY COASTS AND IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE
MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AS A
STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER HITS LOCATIONS IN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON. THESE COASTAL AREAS AND LOCATIONS IN DOUGLAS
COUNTY WILL SEE THESE LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND
INTO THURSDAY WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. BY THURSDAY MORNING,
NORTH BEND COULD GET A QUICK 0.15 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL MOSTLY BE A FEW HUNDRETHS HERE AND THERE.
WITH THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW, WE WERE WATCHING THE WIND THREAT EAST
OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE AND OTHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
CASCADES. 700 MB WIND FLOW IS APPROACHING 50 KNOTS IN NORTHERN
LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. HOWEVER, UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW
MODEST MIXING AND DON'T MIX UP TO 700 MB. WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF WIND GUSTS AROUND THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE, BUT ANYTHING
ABOVE 45 SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THEREFORE, WE OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, HOWEVER IT COULD BE
CLOSE AT TIMES.
EVENTUALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL OREGON RESULTING
IN SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENTLY, THE NBM IS FORECASTING A HIGH OF 68 IN MEDFORD AND
PERHAPS SOME LOWER 70'S IN CALIFORNIA WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID 50'S AROUND SALEM. THE AIR WILL BE DRIER AS THIS FRONT
MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY AND
PRETTY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
EVENTUALLY, A 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HEIGHTS REACHING 590DM IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD INTO SOME UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX(EFI) IS SHOWING 0.8
OVER LARGE AREAS WITHIN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS WARM UP NEXT WEEK
BETWEEN DAYS 6 AND 10. RIGHT NOW, WE'RE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70'S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH A 5 TO 15% CHANCE OF
HITTING 80 HERE IN MEDFORD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS, ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
LIKE ALTURAS AND MONTAGUE WILL BE AT RISK ON THE 16TH.
OVERALL, NOT GOOD FOR WHATEVER SNOW PACK IS LEFT. -SMITH/BPN
AVIATION...11/12Z TAFS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BRING FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK FOCUSED IN NW OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. HOWEVER, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE BLOWING PERPENDICULAR
TO THE CASCADES AND WARNER MTNS (WESTERLY COMPONENT) AND COULD BRING
SOME MID-LEVEL MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF TURBULENCE NEAR
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO DURING ASCENT/DECENT INTO THE TERMINALS.
THIS IS ALSO LEADING TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL VFR
ALTOCUMULUS/ALTOSTRATUS. WSW WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND OVER THE EAST SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (25-35 KT).
THE ONLY PLACE WHERE MOISTURE COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION (AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS) WILL BE AT THE
COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALSO PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. EVEN IN THOSE AREAS, SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY HIT-OR-MISS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY WAVER BETWEEN
MVFR/VFR. SHOWER CHANCES SHIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, MARCH 11, 2026
STEEP WEST-
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOME GUSTY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH STEEP SEAS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AND VERY STEEP SEAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA RIVER BAR. WHILE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY EVENING, THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK
SOUTHWARD AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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