532
FXUS66 KMFR 120945
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
245 AM PDT THU MAR 12 2026
DISCUSSION
RADAR IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE RETURNS TO OUR NORTH,
ESPECIALLY AROUND AND NORTH OF EUGENE. MEANWHILE, HERE IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, CONDITIONS REMAIN
DRY, ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO OR PERHAPS IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD, HOWEVER, WITH SEVERAL
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS SIGNIFYING THE SWIFT WINDS ALOFT.
THESE WINDS,BLOWING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THAT NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH, ARE PRODUCING SOME AREAS OF GUSTY
WINDS IN LAKE COUNTY, PROMPTING A LATE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF HIGHWAYS 31 AND 395. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR ON SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT MAKES ANOTHER SOUTHWARD JOG,
SO A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR SIMILAR AREAS FOR
THAT TIME AS WELL. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT PDXNPWMFR.
TODAY, THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AND STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH IN NORTHERN OREGON WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION OR
IMPACTS IN OUR AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN TOTALS INCREASE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING NEAR NORTH BEND WITH 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN, BUT THAT
IS LOOKING LIKE THE HIGHEST TOTAL FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WE
COULD HAVE SOME WARMER AIR PUSH IN UNDER THIS CLOUD COVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY.
EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON WILL PUSH THIS STATIONARY FRONT
SOUTHWARDS AND SOME RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW WILL FALL OVER
THE REGION ABOVE 5000 FEET. ACCUMULATION WILL BE NON IMPACTFUL
WITH CRATER LAKE SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
BY SUNDAY MORNING A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WITH A LOW STARTING TO SPIN UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. WITH THIS
BROAD SOUTH WEST FLOW, A WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITHIN SOUTHERN OREGON.
TEMPERATURES WILL OBVIOUSLY TREND WARMER AND TAKE THE FIRST STEP
IN A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE'LL TEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN KLAMATH FALLS,
ALTURAS AND MOUNT SHASTA CITY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN
THIS WARM UP.
FINALLY, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL NUDGE EASTWARDS BY WEDNESDAY AND
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO SWING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. THE QPF FORECAST VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
ENSEMBLES, SO NOT THAT CONFIDENT WE'LL GET RAIN, AS AGAIN, IT
LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA.
-SMITH/BPN
AVIATION...12/12Z TAFS
MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST,
INCLUDING AT NORTH BEND, DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. CEILINGS
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MAINLY MVFR AND
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BRIEF GUSTY SSW BREEZES WILL
PICK UP AT NORTH BEND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING
THURSDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED FARTHER INLAND, THOUGH CEILINGS COULD
EASILY LOWER TO MVFR AT ROSEBURG THIS MORNING. AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY FROM THE COAST RANGES TO THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS, WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT OR AROUND
ROSEBURG. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MAY LOWER
BACK DOWN TO MVFR THURSDAY EVENING.
AT MEDFORD, MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THOUGH
THERE IS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF AN MVFR CEILING FOR A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING.
MAINLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF CASCADES/SISKIYOUS (KLAMATH FALLS) WITH SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE. GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. -SPILDE/BPN
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT THURSDAY, MARCH 12, 2026
GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST
SEAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA RIVER BAR. WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BRIEFLY THIS EVENING, A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND STEEP SEAS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION
MARINE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-
370.
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