471
FXUS66 KMFR 121738
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1038 AM PDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
KOTH WILL LIKELY (50%-70%) REMAIN IN MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE VALID TAF CYCLE. KOTH WILL ALSO SEE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS CYCLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WHEN CHANCES (50%-60%)
ARE THE GREATEST. KRBG WILL ALSO SEE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS
EARLY TODAY (IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TODAY) AND THEN MVFR
RETURNS AGAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL LIKELY MISS OUT ON THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. KMFR WILL LIKELY (70%) REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE,
WITH KLMT EVEN MORE LIKELY (90%) TO REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH THIS
CYCLE.
-GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 245 AM PDT THU MAR 12 2026/
DISCUSSION...RADAR IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE RETURNS TO OUR NORTH,
ESPECIALLY AROUND AND NORTH OF EUGENE. MEANWHILE, HERE IN SOUTHERN
OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY, ASIDE
FROM A STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OR
PERHAPS IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
PLENTY OF CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD, HOWEVER, WITH SEVERAL AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS SIGNIFYING THE SWIFT WINDS ALOFT.
THESE WINDS, BLOWING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THAT NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH, ARE PRODUCING SOME AREAS
OF GUSTY WINDS IN LAKE COUNTY, PROMPTING A LATE ISSUANCE OF A
WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF HIGHWAYS 31 AND 395. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT MAKES ANOTHER
SOUTHWARD JOG, SO A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR SIMILAR
AREAS FOR THAT TIME AS WELL. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT PDXNPWMFR.
TODAY, THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AND STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH IN NORTHERN OREGON WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION OR
IMPACTS IN OUR AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN TOTALS INCREASE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING NEAR NORTH BEND WITH 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN, BUT THAT
IS LOOKING LIKE THE HIGHEST TOTAL FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WE
COULD HAVE SOME WARMER AIR PUSH IN UNDER THIS CLOUD COVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY.
EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON WILL PUSH THIS STATIONARY FRONT
SOUTHWARDS AND SOME RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW WILL FALL OVER
THE REGION ABOVE 5000 FEET. ACCUMULATION WILL BE NON IMPACTFUL
WITH CRATER LAKE SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
BY SUNDAY MORNING A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WITH A LOW STARTING TO SPIN UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. WITH
THIS BROAD SOUTH WEST FLOW, A WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITHIN SOUTHERN OREGON.
TEMPERATURES WILL OBVIOUSLY TREND WARMER AND TAKE THE FIRST STEP
IN A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE'LL TEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN KLAMATH FALLS,
ALTURAS AND MOUNT SHASTA CITY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN
THIS WARM UP.
FINALLY, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL NUDGE EASTWARDS BY WEDNESDAY AND
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO SWING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. THE QPF FORECAST VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
ENSEMBLES, SO NOT THAT CONFIDENT WE'LL GET RAIN, AS AGAIN, IT
LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA.
-SMITH/BPN
AVIATION...12/12Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST,
INCLUDING AT NORTH BEND, DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. CEILINGS
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MAINLY MVFR AND
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BRIEF GUSTY SSW BREEZES WILL
PICK UP AT NORTH BEND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING
THURSDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED FARTHER INLAND, THOUGH CEILINGS COULD
EASILY LOWER TO MVFR AT ROSEBURG THIS MORNING. AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY FROM THE COAST RANGES TO THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS, WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT OR AROUND
ROSEBURG. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MAY LOWER
BACK DOWN TO MVFR THURSDAY EVENING.
AT MEDFORD, MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THOUGH
THERE IS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF AN MVFR CEILING FOR A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING.
MAINLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF CASCADES/SISKIYOUS (KLAMATH FALLS) WITH SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE. GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
-SPILDE/BPN
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT THURSDAY, MARCH 12, 2026...GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST
SEAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA RIVER BAR. WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BRIEFLY THIS EVENING, A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND STEEP SEAS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-370.
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