600
FXUS66 KMFR 131129
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
429 AM PDT FRI MAR 13 2026
DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...13/12Z TAFS
ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST (AND AT NORTH
BEND) IS MAINTAINING CLOUDIER CONDITIONS THERE WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND LOCAL IFR/LIFR (BROOKINGS). SOME CLOUDS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS
THE REST OF NORTHERN CURRY, COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES (AS FAR EAST
AS THE CASCADES NORTH OF MT MCLOUGHLIN) WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR --
THIS AFFECTS ROSEBURG AS WELL. SOME AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN COULD
ALSO BE OBSCURED. THERE IS ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE OF AN MVFR CEILING
AT MEDFORD EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AS OF
12Z. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE EAST
SIDE RE-SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR NORTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL
FINALLY PRESS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN,
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND REDUCED CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CASCADES/SISKIYOUS NORTH AND WEST. RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH
COOS COUNTY (NORTH BEND) BETWEEN 04-06Z, AND THE ROSEBURG AREA
CLOSER TO 10Z. -SPILDE
MARINE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 239 AM PDT FRI MAR 13 2026/
SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING THROUGH
TONIGHT, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN OREGON. THERE ARE ALSO LOW CEILINGS
ALONG THE COOS AND CURRY COUNTY COASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SOME MORE TO THE LOW/MID- 40S WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH 30S EAST
THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL OVERALL BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY, AND RAIN
WILL FOCUS ON THE COAST AND NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER, THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME
SATURDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL MAINLY BRING PRECIPITATION TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COAST AND NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 6,000'-6,500', SO MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN BESIDES
AREAS NEAR CRATER LAKE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
0.50"-0.75" AT THE COAST, AND 0.25"-0.50" FOR THE CASCADES. THE
NEXT SEGMENT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES BUT ALSO FOCUS ON THE
CURRY COUNTY COAST THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY MORNING. THE
FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 5 AM-11 AM ARE NEAR 0.25"-0.50".
ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE STRONG WINDS
EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST 700 MB WINDS ARE
NEARING 50-55 KT IN THESE AREAS, AND MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS COULD
NEAR THESE NUMBERS ABOVE 5,500 FEET. WITH THAT, A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE DETAILS
ARE IN NPWMFR. -HERMANSEN
LONG TERM...ON SUNDAY, THE PACIFIC RIDGE LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN AND
IS EXPECTED TO GUIDE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. DAYTIME
HIGHS MAY REACH 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR COASTAL AREAS, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO HIGH 60S
ARE EXPECTED. OREGON VALLEYS AND BASINS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
CASCADES COULD SEE MID TO HIGH 70S. LOW-LYING AREAS IN SISKIYOU
AND MODOC COUNTIES COULD REACH THE LOW 80S. CONSIDERING NBM
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE, ALTURAS HAS A 50-60% CHANCE TO EXCEED 80
DEGREES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WHILE MONTAGUE AND MEDFORD
HAVE A 10-20% CHANCE IN THAT TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES COULD COOL
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT FRIDAY, MARCH 13, 2026...A FRONT TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND STEEP SEAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY FOR ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY. WHILE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE A BIT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE ARAGO SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 2
AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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