984
FXUS66 KMFR 140925
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
225 AM PDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SHORT TERM
RADAR SHOWS A BATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING OVER EARLY
TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND 6,000'-6,500', SO MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN
BESIDES AREAS NEAR CRATER LAKE. THIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS
MORNING, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 0.50"-0.75" AT THE COAST
(NEAR 1.00" FOR SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY), AND 0.25"-0.50" FOR THE
CASCADES. MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL SEE 0.15"-0.25", WITH THE
UMPQUA BASIN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE 0.25". 2"-4" IS
FORECAST TO FALL THROUGH THIS MORNING NEAR CRATER LAKE AND AREAS
NORTH.
ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE STRONG WINDS EAST OF THE
CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST 700 MB WINDS ARE NEARING 50-55 KT
IN THESE AREAS, AND MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS COULD NEAR THESE NUMBERS
ABOVE 5,500 FEET. WITH THAT, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING
AT 11 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 8 PM, AND THE DETAILS ARE IN NPWMFR.
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A DIP TODAY WITH MOSTLY 50S FOR HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR BY TONIGHT, HELPING
TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE 20S EAST AND 30S WEST. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE COOS COUNTY COAST HAS A 70-80% OF SEEING
TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 36 DEGREES TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE
IS WARMING TO COME! PLEASE SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS. -HERMANSEN
LONG TERM
BEYOND TODAY'S SHORTWAVE, THE PACIFIC RIDGE LOOKS TO
STRENGTHEN AND ESTABLISH A STABLE PATTERN THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS WILL BRING A WARNING TREND STARTING ON
SUNDAY. FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BROADLY SPEAKING, COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID
TO HIGH 60S WHILE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO HIGH
70S. LOW ELEVATION AREAS IN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES MAY STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, WHILE PARTS OF SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES MAY
SEE A FEW EXTRA DEGREES OF WARMING. PER NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE, ALTURAS HAS A 50-65% TO SEE DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE 80
DEGREES FROM TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE MEDFORD AND MONTAGUE HAVE
A 15-20% CHANCE AND ONLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE WARM
CONDITIONS DO BRING MINOR HEATRISK LEVELS TO THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. MINOR LEVELS DO NOT SUPPORT AN ADVISORY PRODUCT,
BUT INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO WARM CONDITIONS MAY
BE AT RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES NEXT WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF COOLING. TO ILLUSTRATE
THIS, LET'S CONSIDER THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE FOR ROSEBURG;S
DAYTIME HIGHS. AN EXAMPLE OF A "USUAL" SHORT-TERM INTERQUARTILE
RANGE (THE RANGE BETWEEN THE 25TH PERCENTILE AND 75TH PERCENTILE
OUTCOMES) FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE MIGHT BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES. AT
ROSEBURG FOR THIS SATURDAY, THAT RANGE IS 3 DEGREES; WE'D EXPECT A
HIGH BETWEEN 46 AND 49 DEGREES. FOR SATURDAY THE 21ST, THAT RANGE
IS 23 DEGREES; WE'D EXPECT A TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 56 AND 79
DEGREES. THIS HAPPENS WHEN LONG-TERM MODELS SEE A WIDE RANGE OF
OUTCOMES. OF COURSE, THIS RANGE SHOULD DECREASE AS THE PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND COMES INTO FOCUS. -TAD
AVIATION...14/12Z TAFS
A FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA AND IS BRINGING RAIN AND SOME LOWER IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS,
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY OVER OTHER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES DURING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES. BY THIS AFTERNOON,
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AND FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL SPREAD OUT
ACROSS THE REGION.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 215 AM PDT SATURDAY, MARCH 14, 2026
BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE COME TONIGHT. A STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTH IS
MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY FOR ALL AREAS BEFORE MID-MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL AREAS THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ORZ031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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