375
FXUS66 KMFR 142338
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
438 PM PDT SAT MAR 14 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...15/00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SOME SCATTERED STRATUS LINGERING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. GUSTY
NORTH TO WEST WINDS WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET TODAY. OVERALL, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE (EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW) SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE UMPQUA BASIN,
INCLUDING ROSEBURG, ON WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR. RECENT
MOISTURE THERE COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS, AND IF THE
LOWER CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP, IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE QUICK ON SUNDAY
MORNING. /BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 408 PM PDT SAT MAR 14 2026/
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH PEAK GUSTS
IN LAKE COUNTY OF 51 MPH RECORDED AT SUMMER LAKE AT 538 AM PDT
EARLY THIS MORNING AND 47 MPH AT SUMMIT AT 603 AM PDT. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LAKE COUNTY THROUGH 8 PM PDT
THIS EVENING.
A SMALL PORTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST SIDE AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RECORDED LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. THE COAST
AND DOUGLAS COUNTY RECEIVED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO A HALF
INCH AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF ACROSS
JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES.
IN ITS WAKE, A STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING TOWARD CALIFORNIA WHILE
THE NEXT FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE RESULT FOR
OUR AREA WILL BE AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING,
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WHILE TEMPERATURES NUDGE HIGHER.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ON MONDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAT ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL APPROACH AND MAY BREAK RECORDS
INLAND. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AT THE
COAST, MID 70S TO MID 80S IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS, LOWER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR THE EAST SIDE, AND MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES.
MEANTIME, THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN AIMED AT BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE WEAK SOUTHERN
EDGE OF A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. 35%
OF 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO AT LEAST THE
DOUGLAS AND COOS COAST AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE TO BRING THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TROUGH TO THE COAST ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DURING THAT SAME PERIOD, LATE
IN THE WEEK, A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON.
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SATURDAY, MARCH 14, 2026...A FRONT
HAS BROUGHT BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR ALL AREAS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RESULT IS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALLER CRAFT ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BEYOND
SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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