454
FXUS66 KMFR 150942
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
242 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SHORT TERM
SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BESIDES SOME
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. IT IS ALSO A COOLER
NIGHT WITH LOW 40S AND MID-/UPPER 30S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS OF 2 AM. THERE ARE 20S AND
TEENS FOR EAST SIDE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING
IS STARTING TO BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST SOUTH NEAR CALIFORNIA,
AND THIS WILL HELP START THE WARMING TREND FOR THE AREA. IT STARTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID-/UPPER 30S EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND 40S EAST. THERE WILL BE A LARGER JUMP IN HIGHS MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL EQUATE TO HIGHS
IN THE MID-/UPPER 60S AT THE COAST, 70S INLAND, AND MID-70S TO LOW
80S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK, AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THEY COULD
REACH RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY. -HERMANSEN
LONG TERM
MEANTIME, THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN AIMED AT
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH
THE WEAK SOUTHERN EDGE OF A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COAST. 35% OF 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO AT LEAST THE DOUGLAS AND COOS COAST AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE TO BRING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH TO THE COAST ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DURING
THAT SAME PERIOD, LATE IN THE WEEK, A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
AVIATION...15/06Z TAFS
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE REGION AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DEVELOPING OFFSHORE (EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW) SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING
ROSEBURG, ON WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR. RECENT MOISTURE THERE
COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS, AND IF THE LOWER
CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP, IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE QUICK ON SUNDAY
MORNING. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT SUNDAY, MARCH 15, 2026
BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE AND REMAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT THE COAST THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT COULD SWEEP FARTHER SOUTH.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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