723
FXUS66 KMFR 021715
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1015 AM PDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
EXPECTING THIS TAF CYCLE TO BE PREDOMINATELY A VFR FORECAST WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEARING OUT TODAY. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, SO CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH
ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE FOG AT THIS POINT. THAT SAID, THERE IS ABOUT
A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE.
-GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 431 AM PDT THU APR 2 2026/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...02/12Z TAFS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. GRADUALLY, CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MARKED
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT, SO EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS,
ESPECIALLY THE UMPQUA BASIN TOWARD MORNING. -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM PDT THU APR 2 2026/
DISCUSSION...THE CORE OF A COLD UPPER TROUGH (-35C AT 500 MB OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON) IS MOVING THROUGH THE PACNW EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD LOW-TOPPED (~15KFT) SHOWERS
AND RELATIVELY LOW SNOW LEVELS (~2000-2500 FEET). WITH THE COLD
AIR ALOFT, INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED SOME LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT AND
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRIKES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SOME SMALL HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN SOME
OF THE HEALTHIER SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE, SNOW
CONTINUES TO PILE UP OVER THE CASCADES/SISKIYOU MTNS DUE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND THE COLD, MOIST AIR RISING INTO THE
TERRAIN. WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON FOR SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER THE
HIGHER PASSES. MOST OF I-5 SHOULD BE OK, HOWEVER, SINCE THE SNOW
LEVELS ARE LOW, THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO OVER SISKIYOU SUMMIT
WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVER THE PASS. EVEN SOME WHITENING OF THE
GROUND IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAVEN'T SEEN MUCH SNOW RECENTLY.
BUT, ALL THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE COLD TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND
20S OVER THE EAST SIDE AND MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL
HAVE A FROST/FREEZE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. MANY HEADLINES ARE UP FOR THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL.
AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO 5-10F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAXT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN A BIG WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR
EASTER WEEKEND WITH WEST SIDE VALLEY HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS IN THE
70S/LOW 80S. EVEN BROOKINGS WILL GET QUITE WARM ON SATURDAY WITH
NE WINDS FLOWING DOWN THE CHETCO.
THE WARM WEATHER WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN MODELS ARE
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR WETTER WEATHER RETURNING TUE/WED OF NEXT
WEEK. WE'LL HONE IN ON THE DETAILS/TIMING OF THAT IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. -SPILDE
AVIATION...02/06Z TAFS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TO
THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, THEN LINGERING/TAPERING OFF FROM THE COAST TO
THE CASCADES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, AND
ALSO BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. LASTLY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THURSDAY, APRIL 2, 2026...VERY STEEP
SEAS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE, BUT REMAIN STEEP THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY EASE
THROUGH THE DAY. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONGER NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP SEAS LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029-
030.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ021-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ025-
027-028.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080-
085.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-
370-376.
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