419
FXUS66 KMFR 030539
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1039 PM PDT THU APR 2 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS
SYNOPSIS
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE WEEKEND
AS HIGHS PUSH BACK INTO THE UPPER 70'S AND PERHAPS LOWER 80S.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION
NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING THIS LATE MORNING AS A LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK
EASTWARDS WITH RELATIVELY COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON. THE AIR ALOFT(700MB AND HIGHER) IS RELATIVELY
DRY AND SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. THEREFORE, WE DOWNGRADED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO AN
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER EVENT.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THIS LOW'S WAKE. OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
IN THE VALLEYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20'S IN SOME OF
OUR SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND MID TO LOWER 30'S IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.
THIS IS A RISK FOR THE LARGER AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS OR ANYONE
WITH PLANTS IN THE GROUND AS LOWS APPROACH 28 DEGREES HERE IN
MEDFORD. THE WILD CARD HERE COULD BE SOME FOG OR FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, WHICH MIGHT HALT THE DROP TOWARDS 28 DEGREES
OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FOG
FORMATION GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LATEST FORECASTS DON'T
CONTAIN FOG. FURTHERMORE, THE INVERSION ISN'T SUPER STRONG WHICH
YOU USUALLY LIKE TO SEE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, RECENT
RAINFALL WITH AMPLE CLEARING SOMETIMES LEADS TO A FOG SURPRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING UP INTO THE UPPER AND MID 60'S WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
LOWER 60'S EAST OF THE CASCADES. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO
PUSH TEMPERATURES WARMER OVER BROOKINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60'S IN SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES PEAK AROUND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A 1013 MB HIGH
SETTLES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
THE ONLY OTHER THING THAT STOOD OUT IN THE FORECAST MODELS WAS
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY(CAPE) AROUND
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX
WAS HINTING THIS WAS UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN OREGON. LOOKING AT THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, A 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS FAIR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE NBM POP FORECAST ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH FOR
THE NBM TO PUT IT IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST YET.
FINALLY, ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THURSDAY. WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW,
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AROUND 6500 FEET AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD BRING
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS THE QPF LOOKS TYPICAL AND DOESN'T STAND OUT
AS UNUSUAL IN THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.
-SMITH
AVIATION...03/06Z TAFS
CLEAR SKIES ARE MOSTLY PRESENT ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON THIS EVENING, WITH SOME
CLOUDS CLINGING TO HIGHER TERRAIN IN DOUGLAS COUNTY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE FOR LOW ELEVATION AREAS OVERNIGHT, BUT IS NOT WIDELY
EXPECTED. CHANCES ARE EVEN LOWER FOR COASTAL AREAS GIVEN EXPECTED
OFFSHORE FLOW. VFR LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER A STABLE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS, WHILE COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT THURSDAY, APRIL 2, 2026
SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE'VE TRANSITIONED TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS ALL WATERS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE DAY. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY STRONGER NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP SEAS LIKELY FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
-GUERRERO
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ021-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ025-
027-028.
CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-
370-376.
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