233
FXUS66 KMFR 030818
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
118 AM PDT FRI APR 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN AREA VALLEYS AWAY FROM
THE COAST THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BY
THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS PUSH BACK INTO THE UPPER 70'S AND PERHAPS
LOWER 80S. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SKIES ARE CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVERHEAD, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF A FEW AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS
BANKED UP AGAINST THE CASCADES AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. OUR
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20'S IN SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN
VALLEYS (ROGUE, APPLEGATE, ILLINOIS, KLAMATH, SCOTT AND SHASTA)
AND MID TO LOWER 30'S IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. THIS IS A RISK FOR THE
LARGER AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS OR ANYONE WITH PLANTS IN THE GROUND
AS LOWS APPROACH 28 DEGREES HERE IN MEDFORD. THE WILD CARD HERE
COULD BE SOME FOG OR FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, WHICH
MIGHT HALT THE DROP TOWARDS 28 DEGREES OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FOG FORMATION GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND LATEST FORECASTS DON'T CONTAIN FOG. FURTHERMORE, THE INVERSION
ISN'T SUPER STRONG WHICH YOU USUALLY LIKE TO SEE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, RECENT RAINFALL WITH AMPLE CLEARING
SOMETIMES LEADS TO A FOG SURPRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING UP INTO THE UPPER AND MID 60'S WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
LOWER 60'S EAST OF THE CASCADES. MEANWHILE, A THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD ALSO PUSH TEMPERATURES WARMER OVER BROOKINGS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60'S IN SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY, WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ALONG THE MORE EXPOSED PORTIONS OF THE CURRY COUNTY COAST.
TEMPERATURES PEAK AROUND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A 1013 MB HIGH
SETTLES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT MANY MEMBERS DEPICT THIS LOW SPLITTING,
WITH THE OPEN TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH, AND THE CLOSED LOW
PASSING ONSHORE IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS RESULTS IN A MOSTLY
SOUTH FLOW THAT PUSHES WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH LIFT
PROVIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, THE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY(CAPE) AROUND
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOKING AT THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS, A 10-15%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS FAIR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS
AGAIN TUESDAY.
AS THE TROUGH AND LOW PUSH ONSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO ONE THAT TYPICALLY RESULTS IN CONCENTRATING
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OREGON, WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE
WITH UPLIFT TO PRODUCE THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW, SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, AROUND 6500 FEET, SO WHILE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR
AREA SNOWPACK. -SMITH/BPN
AVIATION...03/12Z TAFS
SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH VFR PREVAILING
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP
AGAINST THE CASCADES AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. CHANCES OF OVERNIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ARE LOW, BUT NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS LATER TODAY, WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. -BPN
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT THURSDAY, APRIL 2, 2026
NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TODAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
ALONG THE COAST. NORTH WINDS BECOME GUSTY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL
WATERS BY TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE THERMAL TROUGH RETURNS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS BY LATE TUESDAY. -BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-023.
CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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