121
FXUS66 KMFR 040724
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1224 AM PDT SAT APR 4 2026
DISCUSSION
IT'S A QUIET NIGHT IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
PREVAILING AIR MASS, COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS EXTENSIVE AS
YESTERDAY MORNING, AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UMPQUA
AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS.
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
TODAY WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MID SLOPES
AND SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WARMER AND DRIER OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH MANY
VALLEYS SEEING MID TO UPPER 70'S WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH AREAS
FARTHER EAST IN THE UPPER 60'S TO PERHAPS LOWER 70'S ON SUNDAY.
EVEN WITH THIS WARM UP, WE'LL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR APRIL 4TH AND 5TH.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE MONDAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER CASCADES AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER
ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. LOOKING AT THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE, IT LOOKS LIKE EVERY MEMBER IS PUTTING DOWN SOME QPF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THAT COULD BE SHOWERS
INSTEAD OF A THUNDERSTORM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HIGHEST
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY(CAPE) IN THE HIGH
CASCADES IN CRATER LAKE WITH SOME OF THAT ENERGY AROUND
-10C TO -20C. THEREFORE, IT SEEMS REASONABLE THERE COULD BE SOME
CLOUD TO CLOUD OR CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
CRATER LAKE.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE BY TUESDAY AS A CUT LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE LINGERS WHILE AN OPEN TROUGH AND FRONT
PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. TUESDAY IS LOOKING DRIER, THEN RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SECOND TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS STILL KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT SOME COULD SNEAK NORTH ACROSS THE
STATE LINE. WITH MOSTLY LIGHT, SHOWERY PRECIPITATION, AND SNOW
LEVELS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 5000 FT, LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
AVIATION...04/12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MOST THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THAT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOCALLY LOWER WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR ALONG THE
COAST (KOTH) AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN (KRBG) EARLY THIS MORNING.
ANY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING.
ALSO, GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF
THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 AM PDT SATURDAY, APRIL 4, 2026
GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN ONCE THE
THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS, RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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