820
FXUS66 KMFR 070946
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 AM PDT TUE APR 7 2026
DISCUSSION
IN GENERAL, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THIS WEEK, THOUGH WE'LL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS UNDER A SPLIT
FLOW REGIME. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SKATE BY TO THE NORTH
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS WEEK WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MEANDERS OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEEK,
ESPECIALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF SYSTEMS SAGS FARTHER SOUTH, BRINGING MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IS UNDERWAY WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AND MARINE
STRATUS BLANKETING THE COAST. THESE LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN ALL
THE COASTAL VALLEYS, BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF INLAND
INTRUSION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER LOW IMPACT WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
TODAY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY, FEELING MORE ON PAR WITH JUNE THAN APRIL,
BUT WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY'S READINGS.
IT'LL GET BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH
AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMMON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER
TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND HOVERS THERE THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERALL,
THE GREATEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE OR/CA BORDER, BUT
THERE ARE SOME POSITION DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE HOW FAR NORTH OF THE OR/CA BORDER
THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAKE IT. FOR WEDNESDAY, MOST ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE NORTHERN MOST EXTENT
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE THE POSITION DIFFERENCES, THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SISKIYOUS/CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW, HOWEVER, SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SISKIYOUS
COULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF JACKSON/JOSEPHINE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE THE LATE WEEK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH DIGS SOUTHWARD.
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS DIGGING LOW.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE INTERACTION WITH THE DEPARTING LOW, AND
WITH BETTER DYNAMICS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY, THERE COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR MORE OF THE AREA. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE SATURDAY COMPARED TO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS PATTERN VS A SOUTHERLY FLOW THUNDERSTORM PATTERN. WITH
THE "DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH" TREND, SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY,
THOUGH DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY AND EVEN MORESO INTO
MONDAY. HOPEFULLY, THE "DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH" TREND DOESN'T
CONTINUE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS, BECAUSE THEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED, THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS GIVING ABOUT A 50-70% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA ON SATURDAY, THEN LOWERS TO 30-
50% FOR SUNDAY AND 15-30% FOR MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER TO AROUND 4500-5000 FT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT WITH
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER, SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND, AND IT WILL FEEL PRETTY COOL
DUE TO HOW WARM IT CURRENTLY IS. IN REALITY, HOWEVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SIMPLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES OVER THE
WEEKEND (MID 50S EAST, MID 60S WEST).
WHILE DETAILS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BOTH GFS
AND EC ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN PERIODS OF WET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 8-14
DAY OUTLOOK WHICH PREDICTS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION BOTH
LEANING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (30-50% CHANCE).
AVIATION...07/06Z TAFS
A SOLID MARINE LAYER IS PRESENT ALONG THE
COAST RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH BEND WHERE AWOS DATA IS
STILL HAVING ISSUES TRANSMITTING OUT. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE COULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO VFR. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING A MOSTLY VFR CYCLE
FOR INLAND TAFS WITH ONE CAVEAT. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT
ROSEBURG, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY
CATEGORICAL CHANGES OUTSIDE OF VFR AT THIS TIME. HINTED AT THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH A SCATTERED DECK, BUT WE MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE
THIS IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT TUESDAY, APRIL 7, 2026
FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING MORNING. A
WEAK THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY, RESULTING SOME GUSTY NORTH
WINDS THAT WILL CREATE BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITIONS. A TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
THURSDAY, THEN SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE,
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF INCREASED NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WITH
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page