537
FXUS66 KMFR 231736
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1036 AM PDT THU APR 23 2026
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS
AVIATION...23/18Z TAFS
A MIX OF MVFR/LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN, BUT ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING. ONCE THESE CLOUDS CLEAR, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
THE UMPQUA VALLEY, COQUILLE VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT THURSDAY, APRIL 23, 2026
NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY MAINTAINING STEEP
SEAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. MEANWHILE, GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING STEEP SEAS TO AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS
WELL. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT EARLY FRIDAY, BUT
STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS TREND LOWER OVER
THE WEEKEND.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST WITH A LOW NORTHWEST SWELL COMBINED WITH A FRESH,
SHORTER PERIOD NNW SWELL. STEEP SEAS COULD RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK
WHEN THERE COULD BE AN UPTICK IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. /BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 412 AM PDT THU APR 23 2026/
DISCUSSION...
KEY POINTS:
* ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
* CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
* CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
* SHOWERS LINGER INTO MONDAY
THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT COOL MORNING
TEMPERATURES, FOLLOWED BY HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER. SOME LOCALIZED MORNING FROST IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY IN WESTERN VALLEYS, SUCH AS IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE
VALLEYS.
A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A BROAD TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OVER CANADA SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (20-50%) AND
SLIGHT CHANCES (10-20%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, SHOWERS MAY EXTEND
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OREGON, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CASCADES EAST.
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH MOVES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT BUT A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN WITH BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS (30-60%) ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH LESS CHANCES (15-30%) WEST OF THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
INDICATES A LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLES FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LOW CHANCES (5-20%) FOR SHOWERS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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