095
FXUS66 KMFR 232008
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
108 PM PDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-WARMER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
-PATCHY FROST TONIGHT IN SOME TYPICALLY COLDER WEST SIDE VALLEYS.
-ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING; OTHERWISE, DRY.
-SHOWER COVERAGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORCAL.
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
-SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY/MONDAY, HIGHEST FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT MORE HIT- OR- MISS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
-ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
MAKE FOR ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS (COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS) WILL BRING
WARMER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN, TONIGHT WILL BE
CHILLY (A LITTLE BIT CHILLIER THAN LAST NIGHT) WITH LESS CLOUD-
COVER EXPECTED. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG COULD FORM IN SOME DEEPER
VALLEYS TOWARD OR AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 32-36F RANGE (FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS) IN THE TYPICALLY
COLDER PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS/APPLEGATE AND EVEN SOME OF THE
ROGUE/LOWER KLAMATH RIVER VALLEYS. SO, WHILE PATCHY FROST COULD
DEVELOP, IT DOESN'T LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FROST ADVISORY.
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS HERE OR
THERE UP HERE IN OREGON. MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 10-15% POPS
NEAR THE TRINITY HORN THAT JUTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER (PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM), BUT WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WILL DRIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS SE SISKIYOU COUNTY AND INTO MODOC COUNTY
FRIDAY NIGHT (~15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS).
ON SATURDAY, ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA (SASKATCHEWAN) WILL DROP SOUTHWARD IN NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT INTO THE PACNW. MEANWHILE, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE INTO OUR AREA FROM A TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWER CHANCES/COVERAGE TO
EXPAND ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT HIGHEST POPS (40-60%) WILL BE IN
NORCAL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHERE THERE IS ALSO A 15-20%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 15% POPS EXTEND BACK TO AROUND THE
CASCADES/SISKIYOUS, BUT ARE GENERALLY 10% OR LESS FOR THE WEST
SIDE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (HIT-OR-
MISS VARIETY) WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR JUST A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS MEANS HIGHS GENERALLY 65-70F IN MEDFORD.
SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH OVER THE AREA TUE/WED, THOUGH AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARBY WITH THE STRONGEST RIDGING LOCATED OUT
AROUND 130W. THAT RIDGE AXIS COULD MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST BY
NEXT THU. -SPILDE
AVIATION...23/18Z TAFS
A MIX OF MVFR/LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN, BUT ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING. ONCE THESE CLOUDS CLEAR, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
THE UMPQUA VALLEY, COQUILLE VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT THURSDAY, APRIL 23, 2026
NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY MAINTAINING STEEP
SEAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. MEANWHILE, GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING STEEP SEAS TO AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS
WELL. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT EARLY FRIDAY, BUT
STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS TREND LOWER OVER
THE WEEKEND.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST WITH A LOW NORTHWEST SWELL COMBINED WITH A FRESH,
SHORTER PERIOD NNW SWELL. STEEP SEAS COULD RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK
WHEN THERE COULD BE AN UPTICK IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS. /BR-Y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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