037
FXUS66 KMFR 251312
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
611 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS
DISCUSSION
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST SPINNING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN UNITED STATES ADD AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
OVER THE PACIFIC, ACTIVITY FOR THE AREA IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
LOOKS MINOR AT MOST. FOR TODAY, AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SWINGS AROUND
THAT CONTINENTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL HELP TO COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WEST OF THE CASCADES, WHILE
TEMPERATURES FARTHER EAST REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY'S. 15-25%
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES, FROM THE TRINITY ALPS EASTWARD. MODEL CAPE VALUES REMAIN
IN THE 100-300 J/KG RANGE, SUGGESTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AT MOST. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THIS ARE INTO
SUNDAY.
UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO MOST AREAS. SHOWER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FARTHER NORTH, MOSTLY ALONG THE CASCADES AND
DOWN INTO SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES IN ADDITION TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES. CAPE VALUES REMAIN MARGINAL IN THESE AREAS,
LEADING TO A SLIGHT DIP IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 10-20%.
IN TOTAL, AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTY BORDERS
MAY SEE BETWEEN ONE-THIRD AND ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOST RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SATURDAY'S SNOW LEVELS OF 7000-7500 FEET WILL ALLOW
MOUNT SHASTA AND PARTS OF THE WARNER MOUNTAINS TO GET A FEW INCHES
OF SNOWFALL. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 6000 FEET ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR
SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER MOUNT SHASTA AND THE WARNER MOUNTAINS. CHANCES
OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY BUT WITH AMOUNTS
FORECAST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS.
MILD WEATHER AND MINOR ACTIVITY CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. UPPER AIR MODELING SHOWS THE UNSTABLE
AIR MOVING EASTWARD, BUT MAYBE REMAINING CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-40% CHANCES) ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS WARM
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA, BUT
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON HOW EXACTLY THE UPPER PATTERN
SETS UP. NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE KEEPS DAYTIME HIGHS FOR
MEDFORD IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WHETHER THAT
WILL BE THE LOW 70S OR HIGH 70S DEPENDS ON THE SETUP. GIVEN A
PERIOD OF STABILITY, TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY ALSO
WARM TO THE MID 70S BY THIS COMING FRIDAY. LAKEVIEW HAS A 60%
CHANCE FOR FRIDAY'S DAYTIME HIGH TO EXCEED 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. -TAD
AVIATION...25/12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS
MOST AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON, AND WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OBSERVATIONS FROM
BROOKINGS INDICATE IFR CEILINGS MAY BE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO. SATELLITE ALSO INDICATES CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN
MODOC AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. THOSE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AREAS MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ACTIVITY EASING INTO
THE EVENING. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 815 PM PDT FRIDAY, APRIL 24, 2026
HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS RESULTING IN PERIODS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS THAT WILL COMBINE WITH A LOW BACKGROUND NORTHWEST SWELL.
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT, GRADUALLY
RETREATING WEST AND SOUTH EARLY TOMORROW, BECOMING FOCUSED SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PATTERN WEAKENS SOME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN LESS STEEP
SEAS AND IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. STEEP SEAS COULD
RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK WHEN THERE COULD BE AN UPTICK IN NORTHERLY
WINDS AND AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ370.
TAD/TAD/TAD
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