990
FXUS66 KMFR 251819
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1119 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...25/18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS IN THE BROOKINGS
AREA AND SOME LOW END VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE MODOC PLATEAU AND
AROUND THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA IN SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE OR/CA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL,
MAINLY FROM THE MT SHASTA REGION AND AREAS EASTWARD. SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT ONCE THEY CLEAR,
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN CA
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALONG THE COAST, MARINE STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS
AND ALONG THE COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO
RETURN AROUND 06-08Z AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 611 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2026/
DISCUSSION...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST SPINNING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN UNITED STATES ADD AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
OVER THE PACIFIC, ACTIVITY FOR THE AREA IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
LOOKS MINOR AT MOST. FOR TODAY, AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SWINGS AROUND
THAT CONTINENTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL HELP TO COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WEST OF THE CASCADES, WHILE
TEMPERATURES FARTHER EAST REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY'S. 15-25%
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES, FROM THE TRINITY ALPS EASTWARD. MODEL CAPE VALUES REMAIN
IN THE 100-300 J/KG RANGE, SUGGESTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AT MOST. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THIS ARE INTO
SUNDAY.
UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO MOST AREAS. SHOWER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FARTHER NORTH, MOSTLY ALONG THE CASCADES AND
DOWN INTO SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES IN ADDITION TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES. CAPE VALUES REMAIN MARGINAL IN THESE AREAS,
LEADING TO A SLIGHT DIP IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 10-20%.
IN TOTAL, AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTY BORDERS
MAY SEE BETWEEN ONE-THIRD AND ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOST RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SATURDAY'S SNOW LEVELS OF 7000-7500 FEET WILL ALLOW
MOUNT SHASTA AND PARTS OF THE WARNER MOUNTAINS TO GET A FEW INCHES
OF SNOWFALL. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 6000 FEET ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR
SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER MOUNT SHASTA AND THE WARNER MOUNTAINS. CHANCES
OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY BUT WITH AMOUNTS
FORECAST TO BE AN INCH OR LESS.
MILD WEATHER AND MINOR ACTIVITY CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. UPPER AIR MODELING SHOWS THE UNSTABLE
AIR MOVING EASTWARD, BUT MAYBE REMAINING CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-40% CHANCES) ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS WARM
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA, BUT
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON HOW EXACTLY THE UPPER PATTERN
SETS UP. NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE KEEPS DAYTIME HIGHS FOR
MEDFORD IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WHETHER THAT
WILL BE THE LOW 70S OR HIGH 70S DEPENDS ON THE SETUP. GIVEN A
PERIOD OF STABILITY, TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY ALSO
WARM TO THE MID 70S BY THIS COMING FRIDAY. LAKEVIEW HAS A 60%
CHANCE FOR FRIDAY'S DAYTIME HIGH TO EXCEED 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 815 PM PDT FRIDAY, APRIL 24, 2026...HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS RESULTING IN PERIODS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THAT WILL COMBINE WITH A LOW BACKGROUND NORTHWEST
SWELL. STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY RETREATING WEST AND SOUTH EARLY TOMORROW, BECOMING
FOCUSED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE PATTERN WEAKENS SOME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN
LESS STEEP SEAS AND IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STEEP SEAS COULD RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK WHEN THERE COULD BE AN
UPTICK IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES
INTO THE WATERS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
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