238
FXUS66 KMFR 261042
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
342 AM PDT SUN APR 26 2026
DISCUSSION
UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT REMAINS THE GUIDING FACTOR FOR
TODAY'S FORECAST, ALTHOUGH LITTLE IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA LOOK TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
VALUES. SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES (10-20%) DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH MODELED CAPE VALUES STAYING BELOW 200 J/KG AND A LACK
OF ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES ARE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN BELOW 10%. A BAND
OF 10-20% THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDERS OF
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. SPC ENSEMBLE "PAINTBALL" GUIDANCE,
WHERE MODELED CELLS OF OVER 40 DBZ ARE SHOWN, HAS DECENT AGREEMENT
ON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG THAT SOUTHERN BORDER WITH
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE LAKE/KLAMATH BORDER. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY OR THE
CASCADES BEFORE ACTIVITY DECREASES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS UPPER INSTABILITY STARTS TO DRIFT AWAY TO THE EAST TO START THE
WEEK AHEAD, ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCALIZED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
SEASONAL DAYTIME HIGHS MAY REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
THURSDAY, NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS A 50% CHANCE FOR MEDFORD TO
EXCEED 80 DEGREES. THAT CHANCE DROPS TO 30% ON FRIDAY. OTHER AREAS
ARE FORECAST TO SEE DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THESE DAYTIME HIGHS, AS DETERMINISTIC
IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND SMALL CUTOFF LOWS
MOVING ALONG THE UPPER FLOW. THESE FEATURES CAN HAVE SOME IMPACT ON
THE FORECAST, AS THEY CAN HELP KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE FROM BECOMING
TOO RESILIENT. INDEED, THE SAME NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INCLUDES
A ~40% CHANCE FOR FRIDAY'S HIGH TO BE BELOW 75 DEGREES. CUTOFF LOWS
ARE WORTH WATCHING FOR, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THEM CAN BRING
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THESE FEATURES ARE LARGELY ABSENT IN
DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY DURING THE WEEK, BUT SOME PASS BY NEXT
WEEKEND. CUTOFF LOWS ARE FICKLE, SO THIS IS MORE OF A NOTE OF
INTEREST RATHER THAN A CONFIDENT FORECAST OF ACTIVITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. -TAD
AVIATION...26/06Z TAFS
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT FROM THE MT SHASTA REGION AND AREAS
EASTWARD, PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT ONCE THEY CLEAR,
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN CA
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MANY OF THE SAME AREAS, BUT MAY ALSO
SPREAD NORTH JUST OVER THE STATE LINE AND ALONG AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.
ALONG THE COAST, MARINE STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS
AND ALONG THE COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO
RETURN AROUND 06-08Z AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE
CLEARING BACK TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SUNDAY, APRIL 26, 2026
WINDS AND SWELL
EASE TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEK AHEAD, BUT STAY BELOW ADVISORY SPEEDS THROUGH
MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO ARE POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND FARTHER NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH
AREAS OF GALES SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH ALSO POSSIBLE.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR PZZ356-376.
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