293
FXUS66 KMFR 271133
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
433 AM PDT MON APR 27 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS:
* COOLER/NEAR NORMAL EVERYWHERE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY
* COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS: OVERNIGHT CLOUDS/DRIZZLE NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO, WHICH COULD REACH ROSEBURG
* RIDGING MID-WEEK LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
* NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE COAST IS COVERED WITH MARINE STRATUS THIS
MORNING, AND IT IS REACHING PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN NEAR
ROSEBURG. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE TODAY WILL BE IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AS SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS AS WELL.
TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST AND INTO THE
UMPQUA BASIN, AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S THERE. ELSEWHERE, MORE
CLEARING WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S WEST AND
LOW 30S EAST. EVERYONE WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW BY
ABOUT 3-7 DEGREES. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A 5-15% CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER IN THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY.
AFTER, RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES BACK INTO THE 70S, AND UPPER 60S ARE
FORECAST EAST! THIS WILL EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LONG TERM: MODELS THEN SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THIS WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST TRIES TO CLOSE OFF
OFFSHORE. AN INCREASING NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW CLOSING OFF
TO OUR SW, WHICH WOULD BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROUGH/LOW, HOWEVER. MANY MEMBERS,
PARTICULARLY FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLES, MAINTAIN A WEAKER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL EXTENT/COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. WE'LL ADJUST THE FORECAST AS THINGS COME MORE INTO
FOCUS. -SPILDE
AVIATION...27/12Z TAFS
ONSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS AND
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO THE OREGON COAST AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS,
AND THIS WILL SLOWLY BUILD OFF THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE MVFR
CEILINGS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AS WELL, GETTING
CLOSER TO ROSEBURG.
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE EAST SIDE, SHOWERS WILL RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH TERRAIN OBSTRUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE, VFR WILL PREVAIL. ANOTHER ONSET OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. -
HERMANSEN
MARINE...UPDATED 145 AM PDT MONDAY, APRIL 27, 2026
NORTH WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A LOW NORTH WEST SWELL KEEPING
SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET.
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO, AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH AND STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY IN ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS IN AND REMAINS ALONG
THE COAST.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5
AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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