983
FXUS66 KMFR 281118
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
418 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS:
* COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS: OVERNIGHT CLOUDS/DRIZZLE NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO, WHICH COULD REACH ROSEBURG
* WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITH CLEARER SKIES TONIGHT,
MID-/UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOWS WEST OF THE CASCADES
* RIDGING MID-WEEK LEADS TO WARMER TEMPERATURES, EAST OF THE
CASCADES GETS THE LARGEST JUMP FRIDAY
* NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE COOS COUNTY COAST IS COVERED WITH MARINE
STRATUS THIS MORNING, AND IT IS REACHING PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG. THERE ARE ALSO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY. OTHERWISE, CLEARER SKIES PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE A 5-
15% CHANCE FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES TO
SEE A SHOWER, BUT OVERALL A DRY STRING WILL BEGIN. TODAY STARTS A
JUMP IN TEMPERATURES (OVERALL 3-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY) AS
MORE OF THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. UPPER 50S
AT THE COAST AND LOW 60S EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRATUS THAT IMPACTS THE COOS
COUNTY COAST AND PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE AREAS THAT REMAIN
CLEAR WILL HAVE LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S WEST AND LOW 30S
EAST. SOME LOCATIONS, INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE FROST THREAT TERRITORY. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID-/UPPER 30S, SO THIS RISK
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO NEED A FROST ADVISORY. NONE THE LESS, IF
YOUR LOCATION NEAR THE ILLINOIS VALLEY IS PRONE TO FROST, TAKE THE
PROPER PRECAUTIONS TONIGHT.
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE CASCADES NEAR OR IN THE 70S, AND 60S ARE FORECAST EAST!
THIS WILL EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND, AND THE MOST WARMING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST THURSDAY,
BRINGING MORE OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID-70S
EAST!
LONG TERM: MODELS THEN SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THIS WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST TRIES TO CLOSE OFF
OFFSHORE. AN INCREASING NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW CLOSING OFF
TO OUR SW, WHICH WOULD BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROUGH/LOW, HOWEVER. MANY MEMBERS,
PARTICULARLY FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLES, MAINTAIN A WEAKER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL EXTENT/COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. WE'LL ADJUST THE FORECAST AS THINGS COME MORE INTO
FOCUS. -SPILDE
AVIATION...28/12Z TAFS
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND AT THE COAST AND
IN THE UMPQUA BASIN CURRENTLY, AND THIS WILL BURN OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING, LATEST AT THE COAST. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN MODOC
COUNTY OR EAST OF THE CASCADES, DRIER AND CLEARER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO SEE DRIER CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW.
ADDITIONAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND UMPQUA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES WITH
A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY, APRIL 28, 2026
NORTH WINDS
CONTINUE THIS WEEK. INITIALLY, WINDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY SPEEDS
TODAY. THEN, GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. STEEP SEAS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
WITH VERY STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND STEEP SEAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY. WINDS TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
SEAS MAY REMAIN STEEP.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
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