357
FXUS66 KMFR 281740
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1040 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2026
..UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
AVIATION...28/18Z TAFS
STRATUS IS THINNING, BUT PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS, INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, AT THE COAST, COQUILLE, AND UMPQUA VALLEYS.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MODOC COUNTY INTO THIS EVENING,
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
THOUGH WITH LESSER COVERAGE AND SHORTER DURATION, IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND UMPQUA VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT TUESDAY, APRIL 28, 2026
A THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN WILL BRING STRONGER NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS ARE
LIKELY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD. STEEP, FRESH
SWELL MAY LINGER WHILE WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND TURN
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 418 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2026/
DISCUSSION...
KEY POINTS:
* COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS: OVERNIGHT CLOUDS/DRIZZLE NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO, WHICH COULD REACH ROSEBURG
* WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITH CLEARER SKIES TONIGHT,
MID-/UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOWS WEST OF THE CASCADES
* RIDGING MID-WEEK LEADS TO WARMER TEMPERATURES, EAST OF THE
CASCADES GETS THE LARGEST JUMP FRIDAY
* NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE COOS COUNTY COAST IS COVERED WITH MARINE
STRATUS THIS MORNING, AND IT IS REACHING PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG. THERE ARE ALSO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY. OTHERWISE, CLEARER SKIES PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE A 5-
15% CHANCE FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES TO
SEE A SHOWER, BUT OVERALL A DRY STRING WILL BEGIN. TODAY STARTS A
JUMP IN TEMPERATURES (OVERALL 3-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY) AS
MORE OF THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. UPPER 50S
AT THE COAST AND LOW 60S EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRATUS THAT IMPACTS THE COOS
COUNTY COAST AND PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE AREAS THAT REMAIN
CLEAR WILL HAVE LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S WEST AND LOW 30S
EAST. SOME LOCATIONS, INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE FROST THREAT TERRITORY. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID-/UPPER 30S, SO THIS RISK
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO NEED A FROST ADVISORY. NONE THE LESS, IF
YOUR LOCATION NEAR THE ILLINOIS VALLEY IS PRONE TO FROST, TAKE THE
PROPER PRECAUTIONS TONIGHT.
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE CASCADES NEAR OR IN THE 70S, AND 60S ARE FORECAST EAST!
THIS WILL EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND, AND THE MOST WARMING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST THURSDAY,
BRINGING MORE OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID-70S
EAST!
LONG TERM: MODELS THEN SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THIS WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST TRIES TO CLOSE OFF
OFFSHORE. AN INCREASING NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW CLOSING OFF
TO OUR SW, WHICH WOULD BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROUGH/LOW, HOWEVER. MANY MEMBERS,
PARTICULARLY FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLES, MAINTAIN A WEAKER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL EXTENT/COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. WE'LL ADJUST THE FORECAST AS THINGS COME MORE INTO
FOCUS. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
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