444
FXUS66 KMFR 282037
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
137 PM PDT TUE APR 28 2026
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND THE REGION. MARINE STRATUS FROM THIS
MORNING IS ERODING FROM PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE, CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 140 AND EAST OF THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA,
BUT LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IS EVEN LOWER (5-10% CHANCE) THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA, TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED
TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AT SEASONAL
NORMALS TODAY.
SHOWER POTENTIAL LARGELY DROPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN LAKE/MODOC ISN'T OUT OF THE
QUESTION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER EACH DAY, BY
AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THEN.
WE SHOULD SQUEAK OUT ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON FRIDAY, BUT THE
RIDGE GETS PUSHED INLAND TO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS LOW PRESSURE GETS
CARVED OUT JUST OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AS HEIGHTS
LOWER AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES ON FRIDAY. CONVERSELY, AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES WILL SEE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS MORE OF THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE ON FRIDAY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON FRIDAY, BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CASCADES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE PATTERN EVOLVES FURTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. ON
SATURDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE ESSENTIALLY CLOSES OFF JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST OF THAT LOW, AMPLIFIES, THEN ALSO CLOSES OFF TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW PRESSURE BY SUNDAY, FORMING A REX BLOCK THAT LINGERS WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN PUTS OUR REGION UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, PROVIDING FOR
DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT
TIME. THIS PERIOD IS STILL BEYOND DAY 5 IN THE FORECAST, SO DETAILS
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME. CURRENTLY, HOWEVER,
IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY AND MONDAY FEATURE THE MOST WIDESPREAD CHANCES,
INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST, BUT BOTH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO
EAST OF THE CASCADES ON TUESDAY AS THE CUT OFF LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD.
AVIATION...28/18Z TAFS
STRATUS IS THINNING, BUT PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS, INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, AT THE COAST, COQUILLE, AND UMPQUA VALLEYS.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MODOC COUNTY INTO THIS EVENING,
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
THOUGH WITH LESSER COVERAGE AND SHORTER DURATION, IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND UMPQUA VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY, APRIL 28, 2026
A THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN WILL BRING STRONGER NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS
AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND VERY STEEP
SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AND ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING. MEANTIME, SEAS WILL BE STEEP ELSEWHERE.
STEEP, FRESH SWELL MAY LINGER WHILE WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
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