569
FXUS66 KMFR 071734
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1034 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS
AVIATION...07/18Z TAFS
MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER THE OREGON COAST
AND INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY UNDER A LINGERING MARINE LAYER. SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW CLEARING, SO VFR LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MARINE
STRATUS RETURNS LATER THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT SUSTAINED FOG DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK
LIKELY.
INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UNDER STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS. -TAD
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 306 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2026/
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
KEY POINTS:
* LIMITED IMPACTS CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
- MOST NOTABLE WILL BE THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
- SOME AREAS 10-15+ DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL
* DRYING TREND CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
- NO SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
- SEE DETAILS BELOW ABOUT FUELS
FURTHER DETAILS:
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONSUMES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. OVERALL, THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST WITH ONE
CAVEAT TOMORROW. THAT CAVEAT WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE
PACNW; HOWEVER, THIS SHORTWAVE IS VERY PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD, AND
WILL LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA.
TOMORROW IS THE OVERALL "COOLEST" DAY IN THE FORECAST, BUT WE ARE
STILL FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WE CONTINUE TO SEE A SIGNAL IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THIS
RIDGE TO ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDLE PARTS OF MAY.
THIS IS CONFIRMED VIA CLUSTER ANALYSIS LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A MORE LIKELY RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH DAY 9. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN ACCELERATED PERIOD OF DRYING FOR
FUELS. FORECAST ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES FOR FUELS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE NEAR THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OR, ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT THIS, THESE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GO
ABOVE 1 STANDARD DEVIATION FROM "NORMAL" VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
THROUGH MAY, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A STRONG SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL/WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND A SIGNAL FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
IN FACT, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR THIS TREND TO CONTINUE MAY-JUNE-
JULY WITH EL NINO CHANCES LIKELY (61% CHANCE) TO EMERGE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF 2026. THIS
WAS INDICATED IN THE CPC APRIL 9TH ENSO DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION.
-GUERRERO
AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...
MARINE STRATUS IS BRINGING A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER UMPQUA VALLEY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
UMPQUA VALLEY, INCLUDING ROSEBURG, OVERNIGHT. BUT, THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO BE FASTER TO IMPROVE ON THURSDAY MORNING, WITH VFR BY
18Z.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH TYPICALLY BREEZY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT THURSDAY, MAY 7, 2026...SUB-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO BETWEEN 5 AND 30 NM OFFSHORE FROM GOLD BEACH. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SPEEDS PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. WEST-
NORTHWEST SWELL DOMINATED SEAS AT OR BELOW 6 FEET WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP
SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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