020
FXUS66 KMFR 072348
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
448 PM PDT THU MAY 7 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...08/00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS,
ASIDE IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE
WATERS FROM PORT ORFORD SOUTHWARD. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND SUNSET, THEN EASE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AND DRY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, BRINGING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING IFR/MVFR COVERAGE IN MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS THAT BANK
UP AGAINST THE SISKIYOUS/CASCADES IN PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY,
THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE MEDFORD TERMINAL.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 240 PM PDT THU MAY 7 2026/
DISCUSSION...
COASTAL STRATUS IS COVERING SECTIONS OF CURRY COUNTY WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS BUILDING OVER MODOC COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
WE'RE ALSO WATCHING A FEW PRESCRIBED BURNS PRODUCE SMOKE IN
WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY, ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE THOSE ARE WINDING DOWN AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL AS TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING ROUGHLY THE SAME
AS 24 HOURS AGO OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
BY TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL HIT THE COAST AROUND
SUNRISE WITH SOME STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AND COASTAL STRATUS
COVERING THE COAST. WE'LL ALSO SEE SOME DENSE HIGH CLOUDS PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ALL OF THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN SATURDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AGAIN AS A RESULT. A THERMAL
TROUGH SHOULD ALSO BE PRESENT ALONG THE OREGON COASTLINE.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70'S UNDER THAT
THERMAL TROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TO MID 80'S FARTHER INLAND.
WE'LL COOL BACK DOWN ON SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN
ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS FORECASTING A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLING OUT IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE LATEST WPC SURFACE FRONT
FORECAST AGREE WITH US IN THAT ASSESSMENT. THE GFS 1000-500 MB
LAYER RH LOOKS RATHER DRY AROUND BEND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHICH LED US TO THING SOMETHING IS THERE.
WE'LL SEE ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE OREGON
COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FARTHER TO THE EAST AND BROAD EAST
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EAST
FLOW WILL BE LIGHT, BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM PUSH MEDFORD TO 90
DEGREES IN THE LATEST NBM FORECAST, WHICH STILL MIGHT BE A FEW
DEGREES TO LOW.
MOUNT SHASTA CITY IS CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE RECORD HIGH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY COULD CHALLENGE THE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY THE 12TH AND 13TH.
FINALLY, THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING HINTS OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS(~20%) ARE
BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERS ARE SHOWING A WEST TO EAST
TROUGH PROGRESSION, WHICH MIGHT RESULT IN A COOLER SHOWERY TYPE OF
RAIN, MOSTLY IN NORTHERN OREGON. IN ANY CASE, IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST RUNS.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY, MAY 7, 2026...BELOW
ADVISORY SEAS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTHERLY WINDS AND WESTERLY SWELL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY, MAKING AREAS OF STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
POSSIBLE. AREAS OF STEEP SEAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO BY SUNDAY EVENING. WESTERLY SWELL EASES SLIGHTLY ON
MONDAY BUT NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH TO BRING STEEP SEAS TO
ALL AREA WATERS. WIND-BUILT STEEP SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. -TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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