258
FXUS66 KMFR 080551
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1051 PM PDT THU MAY 7 2026
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS
AVIATION...08/06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS AND
WILL DO SO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN MARINE
STRATUS ARE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE
WATERS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT IN EARLY FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS THAT BANK UP AGAINST THE SISKIYOUS/CASCADES IN
PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY, THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
THE MEDFORD TERMINAL. THIS WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY BREAK UP THE
MARINE LAYER EARLY FRIDAY, RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST BETWEEN 18-21Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT THURSDAY, MAY 7, 2026
SUB-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND LIKELY INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. NORTH WINDS AND WESTERLY SWELL INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WHICH COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS LATER THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO THAT ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD NORTH BY MONDAY. STEEP SEAS LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 448 PM PDT THU MAY 7 2026/
DISCUSSION...
COASTAL STRATUS IS COVERING SECTIONS OF CURRY COUNTY WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS BUILDING OVER MODOC COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
WE'RE ALSO WATCHING A FEW PRESCRIBED BURNS PRODUCE SMOKE IN
WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY, ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE THOSE ARE WINDING DOWN AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL AS TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING ROUGHLY THE SAME
AS 24 HOURS AGO OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
BY TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL HIT THE COAST AROUND
SUNRISE WITH SOME STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AND COASTAL STRATUS
COVERING THE COAST. WE'LL ALSO SEE SOME DENSE HIGH CLOUDS PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ALL OF THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH STILL WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN SATURDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AGAIN AS A RESULT. A THERMAL
TROUGH SHOULD ALSO BE PRESENT ALONG THE OREGON COASTLINE.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70'S UNDER THAT
THERMAL TROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TO MID 80'S FARTHER INLAND.
WE'LL COOL BACK DOWN ON SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN
ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS FORECASTING A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLING OUT IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE LATEST WPC SURFACE FRONT
FORECAST AGREE WITH US IN THAT ASSESSMENT. THE GFS 1000-500 MB
LAYER RH LOOKS RATHER DRY AROUND BEND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHICH LED US TO THING SOMETHING IS THERE.
WE'LL SEE ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE OREGON
COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FARTHER TO THE EAST AND BROAD EAST
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EAST
FLOW WILL BE LIGHT, BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM PUSH MEDFORD TO 90
DEGREES IN THE LATEST NBM FORECAST, WHICH STILL MIGHT BE A FEW
DEGREES TO LOW.
MOUNT SHASTA CITY IS CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE RECORD HIGH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY COULD CHALLENGE THE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY THE 12TH AND 13TH.
FINALLY, THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING HINTS OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS(~20%) ARE
BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERS ARE SHOWING A WEST TO EAST
TROUGH PROGRESSION, WHICH MIGHT RESULT IN A COOLER SHOWERY TYPE OF
RAIN, MOSTLY IN NORTHERN OREGON. IN ANY CASE, IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST RUNS.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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