111
FXUS66 KMFR 081003
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
303 AM PDT FRI MAY 8 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS:
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST (70S/80S)
* A DRY FRONT ARRIVES TODAY TO COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WITH
BREEZY N/NW WINDS
* RIDGING RETURNS SATURDAY, BRINGING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THIS WEEK
* AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN SUNDAY, ANOTHER WARMUP ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK
SATELLITE SHOWS MARINE STRATUS ACROSS MOST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES, AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING NEAR
THE COAST NEAR BROOKINGS. THIS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND TO THE UMPQUA
BASIN AS WELL. A DRY FRONT ARRIVES TODAY, AND THIS WILL BRING A
MORE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA AND A SLIGHT
COOLDOWN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S MOSTLY, WHICH IS STILL ~5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 10-15 MPH WINDS
AND 15-20 MPH GUSTS. RIDGING QUICKLY RETURNS TO START THE WEEKEND,
AND THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS WEEK SATURDAY.
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE 70S OR 80S SATURDAY, AND THE COAST
WILL REACH THE LOW 70S. THE LATEST RECORD FOR MAY 9 IS 95 DEGREES
(1936) FOR MEDFORD AND 90 DEGREES (1906) FOR KLAMATH FALLS, AND THE
FORECAST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF THESE. NONETHELESS,
PRECAUTIONS NEED TO BE MADE WHEN HEADING OUTDOORS INCLUDING STAYING
HYDRATED AND STAYING IN THE SHADE WHEN POSSIBLE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO THE 10-20% RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY. EAST SIDE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WHILE WEST SIDE DROPS 5-10 DEGREES. RHS EAST
OF THE CASCADES WILL DROP TO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH W/NW WINDS PEAKING AROUND 12-17 MPH. THE COAST WILL
ALSO SEE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 10-15 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
-HERMANSEN
MONDAY AND BEYOND: TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE GFS IS FORECASTING A DRY COLD FRONT STALLING OUT IN CENTRAL
OREGON AND THE LATEST WPC SURFACE FRONT FORECAST AGREE WITH US IN
THAT ASSESSMENT. THE GFS 1000-500 MB LAYER RH LOOKS RATHER DRY
AROUND BEND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH LED US TO THING
SOMETHING IS THERE.
WE'LL SEE ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE OREGON
COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FARTHER TO THE EAST AND BROAD EAST
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EAST
FLOW WILL BE LIGHT, BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM PUSH MEDFORD TO 90
DEGREES IN THE LATEST NBM FORECAST, WHICH STILL MIGHT BE A FEW
DEGREES TO LOW.
MOUNT SHASTA CITY IS CURRENTLY A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE RECORD HIGH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY COULD CHALLENGE THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY THE 12TH AND 13TH.
FINALLY, THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING HINTS OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS(~20%) ARE
BRINGING WHAT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERS ARE SHOWING A WEST TO EAST
TROUGH PROGRESSION, WHICH MIGHT RESULT IN A COOLER SHOWERY TYPE OF
RAIN, MOSTLY IN NORTHERN OREGON. IN ANY CASE, IT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST RUNS.
-SMITH
AVIATION...08/12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN MARINE STRATUS ARE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE MARINE WATERS THAT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. MARINE
STRATUS IS STARTING TO PUSH INLAND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS THAT BANK UP AGAINST THE SISKIYOUS/CASCADES IN PORTIONS OF
JACKSON COUNTY, THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE MEDFORD
TERMINAL. THIS WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY BREAK UP THE MARINE LAYER
EARLY TODAY, RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
BETWEEN 18-21Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT FRIDAY, MAY 8, 2026
SUB-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND LIKELY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
NORTH WINDS AND WESTERLY SWELL INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, WHICH
COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS LATER THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASING
NORTH WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THAT ARE
LIKELY TO SPREAD NORTH BY MONDAY. STEEP SEAS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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