213
FXUS66 KMFR 082240
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
340 PM PDT FRI MAY 8 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 205 PM PDT FRI MAY 8 2026/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE CLEARING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SWING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME PRESCRIBED FIRE BURNS
LIKE YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH THOSE SHOULD BE PRODUCING LESS SMOKE BY
LATER TONIGHT.
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE OREGON COAST LATER
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
WE'LL SEE SOME LIGHT EAST FLOW OVER SOUTHERN OREGON OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
DEFINITELY WARM US UP ON SATURDAY AS HIGHS PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80'S AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
WE'LL COOL BACK DOWN ON SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN
ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS FORECASTING A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLING OUT IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE LATEST WPC SURFACE FRONT
FORECAST AGREE WITH US IN THAT ASSESSMENT. THE GFS 1000-500 MB
LAYER RH LOOKS RATHER DRY AROUND BEND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHICH LED US TO THING SOMETHING IS THERE.
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME
MORE HINTS THAT ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 90'S IN MANY LOCATION WITH
THE NBM FORECASTING 91 DEGREES HERE IN MEDFORD ON TUESDAY. AS A
REMINDER, OUR NORMAL HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 73, SO A SOLID 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH 40% OF ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO OREGON WITH A HIGHER FOCUS
ON NORTHERN OREGON. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER 40% JUST KEEP THINGS PLAIN
OLD DRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT AND SHOW FRANKLY TWO COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS IN
BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE, WHICH POINTS TO THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE BRINGING A WELL
DEFINED COLD FRONT INTO THE OREGON COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS BRIEFLY
FALLING TO 5500 FEET. OVERALL, A LOT TO SILL SORT OUT ON
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND!
AVIATION...09/00Z TAFS
CONDITIONS ARE VFR AREAWIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, COQUILLE VALLEY AND
NEAR NORTH BEND. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF IN THE LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT FRIDAY, MAY 8, 2026
SUB-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND LIKELY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
NORTH WINDS AND WESTERLY SWELL INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, WHICH
COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS LATER THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASING
NORTH WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THAT ARE
LIKELY TO SPREAD NORTH BY MONDAY. STEEP SEAS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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