958
FXUS66 KMFR 092358
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
458 PM PDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION...10/00Z TAFS
IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO BROOKINGS AS
WELL AS OVER THE MARINE WATERS SOUTH OF BROOKINGS AND BEYOND 40 NM
FROM SHORE ACROSS THE WATERS. THESE IFR CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS, ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS.
FARTHER INLAND, VFR PREVAILS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING BY AT
TIMES. THERE'S A DECENT CHANCE (40%) OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
AROUND ROSEBURG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. -SPILDE/DW
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY, MAY 9, 2026
SUB-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND
WIND DRIVEN STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO ON MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 212 PM PDT SAT MAY 9 2026/
DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE LINGERING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN OREGON WILL BE INFLUENCING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS ALONG THE COAST LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S.
WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL GENERALLY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S, WHILE VALLEYS AND BASINS TO THE EAST WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.
A PASSING DRY FRONT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES ON SUNDAY. THE COAST WILL COOL TO THE MID TO HIGH 60S,
WHILE MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE 70S. THE SCOTT AND
SHASTA VALLEYS MAY STAY A LITTLE WARMER, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THIS WEAK FRONT'S MOVEMENT. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL WARM AS THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S
FOR LOW-LYING AREAS.
A UNIFORM UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING
ABOVE SEASONAL WARMTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH CLEARER SKIES ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR A FEW EXTRA DEGREES OF WARMING. ONSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
ALLOW FOR SOME MARINE CLOUDS THAT WILL BRING COOLER COASTAL
TEMPERATURES. INLAND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEST SIDE VALLEYS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH LOW TO HIGH 80S TO
THE EAST.
AN APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL INFLUENCE MIDWEEK CONDITIONS, BUT
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS. THE FIRST EFFECTS MAY BE ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
CUTOFF COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN
ROGUE VALLEY, AND OVER THE EAST SIDE. THESE WINDS MAY REACH ADVISORY
SPEEDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY (50-60% CHANCES), BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO DO
SO IN OTHER AREAS (10-20% CHANCES OVER TERRAIN IN MODOC AND SOUTHERN
LAKE/KLAMATH COUNTIES). UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF
THE LOW IS AFFECTING CONFIDENCE IN OTHER AREAS. ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
IMAGERY BRINGS THE CUTOFF OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH
LIMITS DAYTIME HEATING AND MAKES THUNDERSTORMS LESS LIKELY WHILE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY. GFS IMAGERY MOVES THE CUTOFF FARTHER
SOUTH AND ARRIVES LATER ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS ALSO REFLECT
THIS UNCERTAINTY. NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS AN INTERQUARTILE
RANGE (EQUAL 25% CHANCES) OF MEDFORD'S HIGH BEING BETWEEN 75 AND 92
DEGREES.
BEYOND THE CUTOFF, THERE'S GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN A COOLING TREND
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS MAY DIP
JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. -TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 11
PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page