123
FNUS76 KMFR 100422
FWSMFR
SPOT FORECAST FOR WILDHORSE PRESCRIBED BURN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
922 PM PDT SAT MAY 9 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 PDT ON MAY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A MARINE PUSH WILL BE AT PEAK STRENGTH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A HIGHER
THAN NORMAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE NEXT
LOW. THERE IS ABOUT AN EVEN, 40% PROBABILITY OF A SUMMER-LIKE
SHOWERY PATTERN, OR A WETTER BUT LESS UNSTABLE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE REMAINING 20% PROBABILITY (THIRD SCENARIO) IS THAT THE LOW
MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY. IN THE FIRST
SCENARIO, SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING, BUT THAT
PROBABILITY IS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE SECOND SCENARIO, A WETTING RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW, FOCUSED ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COUPLE OF LOWS ARE LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING
COOLER, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (COOLER) AND HUMIDITY (SLIGHTLY
HIGHER), WESTERLY WINDS, AND THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN FOR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. THE 7 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS FOR THE
PATTERN TO REMAIN WEAKLY ACTIVE WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
AROUND A 25% PROBABILITY OF ONE OR MULTIPLE SYSTEMS BRINGING
PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEK.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-50 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 3 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 4 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 10 MPH
IN THE EVENING.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH
IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 2 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 7 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
TUESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SATURDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY MAY 17 THROUGH SATURDAY MAY 23
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
=
FORECASTER...WEYGAND
REQUESTED BY...ANDREW LARRIMORE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2612132.6/MFR
.DELDT 05/10/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL RICHARD.LARRIMORE@USDA.GOV
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