820
FXUS66 KMFR 101801
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1101 AM PDT SUN MAY 10 2026
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...10/18Z TAFS
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL IMPACTING
THE UMPQUA BASIN FROM ROSEBURG NORTHWARD, PORTIONS OF THE COQUILLE
VALLEY AND THE COAST AROUND BROOKINGS LATE THIS MORNING, BUT THESE
SHOULD BREAK TO VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE, VFR PREVAILS
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS (PEAKING
NEAR 20 KT) CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF TERMINALS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (21Z SUNDAY - 04Z MONDAY) BEFORE EASING
AROUND/AFTER SUNSET.
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
SQUEEZED/SCOURED SOMEWHAT, BUT MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME ALONG
THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, NEAR BROOKINGS AND IN PORTIONS OF
THE UMPQUA BASIN. IN THIS CASE, ANY CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP IN THOSE
AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IFR (<1000 FT) AND LAST UNTIL THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY IFR TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ARE NORTH BEND (60-70% CHANCE) AND ROSEBURG (40-50%
CHANCE). MEDFORD'S CHANCE IS <10%. -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 332 AM PDT SUN MAY 10 2026/
DISCUSSION...
KEY POINTS:
* AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN SUNDAY, ANOTHER WARMUP ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK
* DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING (WEST OF CASCADES:
NW/N), EAST OF CASCADES: W)
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST (70S/80S)
* NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION: LATER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT
SATELLITE SHOWS MARINE STRATUS ACROSS COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES,
INCLUDING THE COQUILLE VALLEY. THE STRATUS IS STARTING TO EXPAND
TO THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF LATER
THIS MORNING.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WHILE A DRY FRONT ARRIVES. EAST
SIDE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY TEMPERATURES
WHILE WEST SIDE DROPS 5-10 DEGREES. RHS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL
DROP TO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH W/NW WINDS
PEAKING AROUND 12-17 MPH. THE COAST WILL ALSO SEE STRONGER WINDS
NEAR 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
RIDGING WILL BUILD AGAIN MONDAY, HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TO MORE THAN
WHAT WAS SEEN SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY, MID-UPPER 70S FOR THE COAST, AND LOW/MID-80S
EAST OF THE CASCADES! MONDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A TYPICAL
AFTERNOON PEAK, AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 15-25% RANGE
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NEAR 20-30% FOR PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND: AN APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL INFLUENCE MIDWEEK
CONDITIONS, BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS. THE FIRST
EFFECTS MAY BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE CUTOFF COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY,
THE SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY, AND OVER THE EAST SIDE. THESE WINDS MAY
REACH ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY (50-60% CHANCES), BUT ARE
UNLIKELY TO DO SO IN OTHER AREAS (10-20% CHANCES OVER TERRAIN IN
MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE/KLAMATH COUNTIES). UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND POSITION OF THE LOW IS AFFECTING CONFIDENCE IN OTHER AREAS.
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC IMAGERY BRINGS THE CUTOFF OVER THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH LIMITS DAYTIME HEATING AND MAKES
THUNDERSTORMS LESS LIKELY WHILE RAIN SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY. GFS
IMAGERY MOVES THE CUTOFF FARTHER SOUTH AND ARRIVES LATER ON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS ALSO REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINTY.
NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS AN INTERQUARTILE RANGE (EQUAL 25%
CHANCES) OF MEDFORD'S HIGH BEING BETWEEN 75 AND 92 DEGREES.
BEYOND THE CUTOFF, THERE'S GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN A COOLING TREND
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS MAY DIP
JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. -TAD
AVIATION...10/12Z TAFS...A MIX OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING AT THE COAST, COQUILLE VALLEY, AND UMPQUA BASIN BEFORE
IMPROVING AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FARTHER INLAND, VFR PREVAILS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING BY AT
TIMES. GUIDANCE ALSO SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL (10% CHANCE) FOR LOWER
CLOUDS TO FILTER INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE MEDFORD TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SUNDAY, MAY 10, 2026...A THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS TODAY, BRINGING INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN
STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO ON MONDAY
BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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