150
FXUS66 KMFR 102132
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
232 PM PDT SUN MAY 10 2026
DISCUSSION
A DRY FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH IS FLATTENING AN
UPPER RIDGE, ALLOWING FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WEST OF THE
CASCADES. HIGHER PRESSURE REMAINS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES, KEEPING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DRY FRONT PASSING BY THIS EVENING, THE RIDGE REBUILDS AND
BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS ALONG THE COAST LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS BOTH DAYS. VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S. EAST OF THE CASCADES, VALLEYS AND BASINS
ARE FORECAST TO SEE THE MID 80S ON MONDAY THEN WARM TO THE HIGH 80S
ON TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS, SO EXTRA AWARENESS OF HOW YOU'RE FEELING DURING THE
WARMEST PART OF THE AFTERNOON IS ENCOURAGED.
ON WEDNESDAY, A COMPACT LOW REMAINS IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN BUT
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN ITS EXPECTED ARRIVAL REMAIN.
MODELS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY'S
HIGHS. NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE STILL HAS A NEARLY 20 DEGREE RANGE
OF EXPECTED HIGHS FOR MEDFORD, WITH AN INTERQUARTILE RANGE (EQUAL 25
PERCENT CHANCES) OF 87 AND 69 DEGREES, THAT SORT OF UNCERTAINTY IS
USUALLY RESERVED FOR 7 DAYS OUT RATHER THAN 3 DAYS OUT. THERE'S
RELATIVELY MORE CLARITY IN OTHER CONDITIONS, BUT STILL A FEW DETAILS
TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT DAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED, WITH 50%
CHANCES FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING UNLIKELY, WITH MODELED CAPE
VALUES IN THE 100-200 J/KG RANGE. THIS LEAVES SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MOSTLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 0.2 INCHES
AT BEST.
COOLING IS CERTAIN BEHIND THE LOW, WITH A COOLING TREND IN THE
FOREST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE LOW'S EXIT TO
THE EAST, BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY (10-20% CHANCES). -TAD
AVIATION...10/18Z TAFS
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL IMPACTING
THE UMPQUA BASIN FROM ROSEBURG NORTHWARD, PORTIONS OF THE COQUILLE
VALLEY AND THE COAST AROUND BROOKINGS LATE THIS MORNING, BUT THESE
SHOULD BREAK TO VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE, VFR PREVAILS
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS (PEAKING
NEAR 20 KT) CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF TERMINALS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (21Z SUNDAY - 04Z MONDAY) BEFORE EASING
AROUND/AFTER SUNSET.
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
SQUEEZED/SCOURED SOMEWHAT, BUT MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME ALONG
THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, NEAR BROOKINGS AND IN PORTIONS OF
THE UMPQUA BASIN. IN THIS CASE, ANY CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP IN THOSE
AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IFR (<1000 FT) AND LAST UNTIL THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY IFR TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ARE NORTH BEND (60-70% CHANCE) AND ROSEBURG (40-50%
CHANCE). MEDFORD'S CHANCE IS <10%. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SUNDAY, MAY 10, 2026
A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN STEEP SEAS SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS
THAT WILL AT LEAST BRUSH THE SOUTHERN HALF, EXCEPT COULD BE FARTHER
NORTH IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHERN TRACK. WINDS WON'T BE TOO
STRONG AND REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN
COULD REDEVELOP FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS
AND STEEPER SEAS AGAIN, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
TAD/TAD/TAD
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