462
FXUS66 KMFR 102340
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
440 PM PDT SUN MAY 10 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...11/00Z TAFS
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER HIGH
CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS (PEAKING NEAR 20 KT) AT
ALL TAF TERMINALS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING (AROUND
04Z MONDAY) BEFORE EASING AROUND/AFTER SUNSET.
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
SQUEEZED/SCOURED SOMEWHAT, BUT MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME ALONG
THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, NEAR BROOKINGS AND IN PORTIONS OF
THE UMPQUA BASIN. IN THIS CASE, ANY CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP IN THOSE
AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IFR (<1000 FT) AND LAST UNTIL THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR AGAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY IFR TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ARE NORTH BEND (60-70% CHANCE) AND ROSEBURG (40-50%
CHANCE). MEDFORD'S CHANCE IS <10%. -SPILDE/BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 232 PM PDT SUN MAY 10 2026/
DISCUSSION...A DRY FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH IS FLATTENING AN
UPPER RIDGE, ALLOWING FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WEST OF THE
CASCADES. HIGHER PRESSURE REMAINS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES, KEEPING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DRY FRONT PASSING BY THIS EVENING, THE RIDGE REBUILDS AND
BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS ALONG THE COAST LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS BOTH DAYS. VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S. EAST OF THE CASCADES, VALLEYS AND BASINS
ARE FORECAST TO SEE THE MID 80S ON MONDAY THEN WARM TO THE HIGH 80S
ON TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS, SO EXTRA AWARENESS OF HOW YOU'RE FEELING DURING THE
WARMEST PART OF THE AFTERNOON IS ENCOURAGED.
ON WEDNESDAY, A COMPACT LOW REMAINS IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN BUT
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN ITS EXPECTED ARRIVAL REMAIN.
MODELS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY'S
HIGHS. NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE STILL HAS A NEARLY 20 DEGREE RANGE
OF EXPECTED HIGHS FOR MEDFORD, WITH AN INTERQUARTILE RANGE (EQUAL 25
PERCENT CHANCES) OF 87 AND 69 DEGREES, THAT SORT OF UNCERTAINTY IS
USUALLY RESERVED FOR 7 DAYS OUT RATHER THAN 3 DAYS OUT. THERE'S
RELATIVELY MORE CLARITY IN OTHER CONDITIONS, BUT STILL A FEW DETAILS
TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT DAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED, WITH 50%
CHANCES FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING UNLIKELY, WITH MODELED CAPE
VALUES IN THE 100-200 J/KG RANGE. THIS LEAVES SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MOSTLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 0.2 INCHES
AT BEST.
COOLING IS CERTAIN BEHIND THE LOW, WITH A COOLING TREND IN THE
FOREST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE LOW'S EXIT TO
THE EAST, BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY (10-20% CHANCES). -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SUNDAY, MAY 10, 2026...A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN STEEP SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL AT LEAST BRUSH THE SOUTHERN HALF,
EXCEPT COULD BE FARTHER NORTH IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHERN
TRACK. WINDS WON'T BE TOO STRONG AND REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH.
A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN COULD REDEVELOP FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS AND STEEPER SEAS AGAIN, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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