719
FXUS66 KMFR 111048
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
348 AM PDT MON MAY 11 2026
DISCUSSION
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGHS WILL PUSH
INTO THE LOWER 90'S FOR HIGHS IN MEDFORD. HOWEVER, NO RECORDS WILL
BE AT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS.
THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE COAST WILL RETREAT FARTHER
INLAND ON TUESDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90'S AND
UPPER 80'S IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL APPROACH THE OREGON COAST INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. WITH
DEEP MIXING UP TO 10000 AND PERHAPS 12000 FEET, WE'LL MIX DOWN
THOSE HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS TO 30KTS SHOULD BE LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY.
ALSO, MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WEST OF THE CASCADES AS THIS
LOW MOVES IN. MODELS ARE NOT THAT AMBITIOUS INITIATING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FORM IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE NBM PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS ABOUT 10% WITHIN 20KM OF MOST AREAS IN OREGON ON
TUESDAY EVENING, WHICH SEEMS A BIT HIGH BASED ON THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. IN ANY CASE, THERE IS A LOW FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHORE,
AND THAT DOES FIT THE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THESE WARM
MONTHS.
EVENTUALLY, THIS LOW TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW MEMBERS(~5-10%)
THAT ARE RELATIVELY DRY AND PUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR
NORTH IN PORTLAND'S CWA OR SOUTH IN SACRAMENTO'S CWA. IN ANY CASE,
LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND PUSH
TEMPERATURES DOWN 10 TO 15 DEGREES.
THIS PROGRESSIVE NORTH WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. NO WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH THE LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY COULD IMPACT SOME OUTDOOR EVENTS. EVEN
IF IT DOES RAIN, IT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.
-SMITH
AVIATION...11/12Z TAFS
PATCHES OF IFR AND LIFR HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE COAST UNDER SOME MARINE STRATUS. IT LOOKS LIKE SLIVERS OF
THE STRATUS ARE HOLDING UP AGAINST THE NORTH EAST WINDS, SO THIS
WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL BURN OFF BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR
GUSTY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE COAST INTO THE EVENING.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 330 AM PDT MONDAY, MAY 11, 2026
A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN STEEP SEAS SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION. WINDS WON'T BE TOO STRONG AND REMAIN MOSTLY FROM
THE NORTH. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN COULD REDEVELOP FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS AND STEEPER SEAS AGAIN, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. -SPILDE/SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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