073
FXUS66 KMFR 120054
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
554 PM PDT MON MAY 11 2026
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...12/00Z TAFS
VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT
IFR STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING ALONG
THE COAST AND FILL IN TO MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT 5-10 MILES INLAND
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER INLAND (10-20 MILES) INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY NEAR COQUILLE
AND MYRTLE POINT. VFR PREVAILS ELSEWHERE INLAND TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING (INCLUDING ROSEBURG).
STRATUS/FOG SHOULD LIFT/BREAK UP A BIT AT THE COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE MORE ONSHORE, COULD SEE SOME
PERSISTENT CLOUDY AREAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER INLAND AREAS AND SOME
INSTABILITY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE USUAL SPOTS FROM
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY UP ACROSS THE SISKIYOUS TO THE CASCADES
(THUNDER PROBABILITY IS ABOUT 10-20% IN THESE AREAS). WITH DECENT
MID-LEVEL FLOW ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING COULD DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS
(MOSTLY JACKSON/EASTERN DOUGLAS), BUT AS FAR WEST AS ILLINOIS
VALLEY, GRANTS PASS AND EVEN PERHAPS ROSEBURG DURING THE EVENING.
EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY AFTERNOON BREEZES IN NORCAL (ESP. THE SHASTA
VALLEY), BUT ALSO IN OREGON EAST OF THE CASCADES.
TUESDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS AND COASTAL SHOWERS SPREADING INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS COULD REACH NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LARGELY REMAIN DRY WITH VFR. THINGS MOSTLY DRY OUT
WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 254 PM PDT MON MAY 11 2026/
DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES, KEEPING THE WEATHER WARM AND DRY TODAY AND ON
TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES WEST OF THE CASCADES. CITIES ALONG THE COAST WILL SEE HIGHS
IN THE 70S, WITH LOW 70S NEAR COOS BAY AND MID TO HIGH 70S NEAR
BROOKINGS. FOR THE UMPQUA VALLEY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH INTO
THE LOW 80S WHILE OTHER WEST SIDE VALLEYS COULD REACH THE HIGH 80S
TO MID 90S. EAST OF THE CASCADES, LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE EAST ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING SOME RELIEF FOR COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES. COASTAL CITIES
LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 60S, WHILE COO AND CURRY VALLEYS WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY. IN
THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT THE LOW
FARTHER NORTH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
LOOKS TO KEEP WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
ONLY AREAS WHERE LOCAL ADVISORY GUSTS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE IS OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN EASTERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES, INCLUDING
THE WARNER MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE LOW AND THE
FICKLENESS OF GUIDANCE AS IT HAS APPROACHED, THE NEED FOR ADVISORY
PRODUCTS CANNOT BE WRITTEN OFF BUT DOES LOOK UNLIKELY RIGHT NOW.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE LOW LOOKS TO PASS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
WITH THIS PATH, THE EFFECTS LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO LIGHT MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS. COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES LOOK TO GET UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL, WHILE INLAND AREAS ARE FORECAST
TO SEE AMOUNTS IN THE HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, BUT CAMS LIMITED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE JACKSON/JOSEPHINE COUNTY BORDER SO EXPECTATIONS ARE NOT
HIGH. LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES MAY MISS OUT ON RAINFALL ENTIRELY.
GUSTY WINDS RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT ARE LIMITED TO EASTERNMOST
LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES.
ZONAL FLOW AND LIGHT TROUGHING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND INTO SATURDAY, WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
SEASONAL NORMS. A FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO COASTAL AREAS AND PARTS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY, BUT CHANCES
ARE LOW (20-40%) AND AMOUNTS WOULD BE UNIMPACTFUL. WARMER
TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -TAD
AVIATION...11/18Z TAFS...VFR LEVELS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND WITH
NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHER OREGON THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A CHANGE TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING WHILE INLAND
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MONDAY, MAY 11, 2026...A THERMAL TROUGH
IS BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO ALL AREA WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE IN THE EVENING, AND SEAS FALL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COMPACT LOW WILL INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS AND SWELL AS
WELL AS CHANCES FOR MARINE RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
NORTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND MAY
BUILD STEEP SEAS ON FRIDAY. -TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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