310
FXUS66 KMFR 131745
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1045 AM PDT WED MAY 13 2026
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS
AVIATION...13/18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS MOST CONCENTRATED
NORTH OF THE OR/CA BORDER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS PERSIST ALONG THE CASCADES AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING WEST TO
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE...UPDATED 1030 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, MAY 13, 2026
SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
PERSISTING. SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL INCREASE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, INCREASING SOME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF STEEP SEAS ON THURSDAY WITHIN 25 NM
OF SHORE. STEEP SEAS AND CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL ARE MORE
LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL
COMBINES WITH WIND SEAS TO BRING ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS.
NORTH WINDS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. MEANWHILE, A HIGHER
(7-9 FT) NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDS INTO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
STEEP SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WHERE THIS
INCREASING SWELL COMBINES WITH WIND DRIVEN SEAS, WHILE NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO, SWELL DOMINATED SEAS SHOULD RESULT IN BELOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 347 AM PDT WED MAY 13 2026/
DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE THE STORMS REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN WITHIN THESE SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE RATHER LOW OR SOME AREAS WILL STAY COMPLETELY
DRY, LIKE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN
EASTERN OREGON BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SO THINGS SHOULD START TO
DRY OUT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DROPS TO 0 PERCENT BY THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
COOLER MORE UNSTABLE AIR MOVING ON SHORE, WE SHOULD SEE SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS WITHIN OREGON IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE SKIES WILL BE CLEARER WITHIN CALIFORNIA.
ZONAL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THURSDAY. NOT A
WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM BRIEFLY WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTH WESTERLY BREEZES.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
SHOWING UP ON THE 850 MB EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE CHARTS.
IT'S NOT REALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE, SO A TAD
BIZARRE. IN ANY CASE, IT WILL BE A DRY FRONT FOR OUR AREA WITH
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION <5% FOR OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, WE SHOULD ALL SEE TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FINALLY, WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IN
WASHINGTON DIGS DEEPER INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION(<0.05 INCHES) IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA. THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE KEEPING US DRY. HOWEVER, ABOUT 8% OF THOSE MEMBERS WANT TO
BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT TIMES, MAINLY AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THIS WETTER SOLUTION
NEXT WEEK(THE 8 PERCENT SCENARIO) IS DEPICTED IN THE 0Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF, WHICH IS AN OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT.
OVERALL, NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED BASED ON WHAT WE'RE
SEEING IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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