627
FXUS66 KMFR 131912
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1212 PM PDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY POINTS
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
* SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING ENHANCED WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS ALONG WITH NIGHTLY MARINE PUSHES ALONG
THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.
* TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE ROGUE-UMPQUA DIVIDE ON
SATURDAY.
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON AND CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE CASCADES, MAINLY NORTH OF CRATER
LAKE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY, AND WE EXPECT SEASONAL HIGHS TODAY (LOW
70S WEST/MID- UPPER 60S EAST). LOW PRESSURE IS DEPARTING TO THE
EAST TODAY, WHICH WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDS, EASING WINDS AND
AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS PEAKED IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES, WITH 35-45 MPH COMMON EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A WEAK FRONT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST (0.25"-0.40"),
COASTAL RANGES (0.25") AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN (FEW HUNDRETHS -
0.10"). THERE WAS SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES AS WELL, BUT ONLY A FEW SITES
MEASURED ANY PRECIPITATION.
ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING ENHANCED WEST TO NORTHWEST
AFTERNOON WINDS ALONG WITH NIGHTLY MARINE PUSHES ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A BROAD TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COOLING TREND WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS BEING SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS BROAD
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE GLANCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN AREAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE OVERALL
CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT
WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS TROUGH TO SEE IF THERE
ARE ANY SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD SHIFTS IN SHORTWAVES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION, SO WE'LL SEE A
WARMING TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. THERE'S DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
GUIDANCE WITH ABOUT 30% OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE, ABOUT 55% OF
SOLUTIONS SHOW A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN BUT BRING THE HIGH PRESSURE
CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EITHER OUTCOME WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND, BUT THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE REMAINING 20% OF
SOLUTIONS HAVE THE PATTERN SHIFTED FARTHER WEST, WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. STAY TUNED AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION...13/18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS MOST CONCENTRATED
NORTH OF THE OR/CA BORDER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS PERSIST ALONG THE CASCADES AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING WEST TO
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE...UPDATED 1130 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, MAY 13, 2026
SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
PERSISTING. SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, INCREASING SOME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF STEEP SEAS ON THURSDAY WITHIN 25 NM
OF SHORE. STEEP SEAS AND CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL ARE MORE
LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL
COMBINES WITH WIND SEAS TO BRING ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS.
NORTH WINDS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. MEANWHILE, A HIGHER
(7-9 FT) NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDS INTO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
STEEP SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WHERE THIS
INCREASING SWELL COMBINES WITH WIND DRIVEN SEAS, WHILE NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO, SWELL DOMINATED SEAS SHOULD RESULT IN BELOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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