545
FXUS66 KMFR 140543
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1043 PM PDT WED MAY 13 2026
..UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION...14/06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF LATE
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MVFR STRATUS IN THE COASTAL
VALLEYS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, AND PATCHY MVFR STRATUS FORMING IN THE
CENTRAL UMPQUA VALLEY. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER AVIATION WEATHER ITEM OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST FOR THURSDAY IS BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 30 KT EXPECTED
TO BE COMMON.
MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT WEDNESDAY, MAY 13, 2026
INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE THURSDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY FROM AROUND GOLD BEACH
SOUTHWARD. FURTHERMORE, STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL COMBINES WITH
WIND SEAS TO BRING ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS. NORTH WINDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. MEANWHILE, A HIGHER (7-9 FT)
NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDS INTO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 420 PM PDT WED MAY 13 2026/
KEY POINTS...
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
* SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING ENHANCED WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS ALONG WITH NIGHTLY MARINE PUSHES ALONG
THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.
* TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE ROGUE-UMPQUA DIVIDE ON
SATURDAY.
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TUESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON AND CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE CASCADES, MAINLY NORTH OF CRATER
LAKE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY, AND WE EXPECT SEASONAL HIGHS TODAY (LOW
70S WEST/MID- UPPER 60S EAST). LOW PRESSURE IS DEPARTING TO THE
EAST TODAY, WHICH WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDS, EASING WINDS AND
AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS PEAKED IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES, WITH 35-45 MPH COMMON EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A WEAK FRONT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST (0.25"-0.40"),
COASTAL RANGES (0.25") AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN (FEW HUNDRETHS -
0.10"). THERE WAS SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES AS WELL, BUT ONLY A FEW SITES
MEASURED ANY PRECIPITATION.
ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING ENHANCED WEST TO NORTHWEST
AFTERNOON WINDS ALONG WITH NIGHTLY MARINE PUSHES ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A BROAD TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COOLING TREND WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS BEING SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS BROAD
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE GLANCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN AREAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE OVERALL
CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT
WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS TROUGH TO SEE IF THERE
ARE ANY SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD SHIFTS IN SHORTWAVES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION, SO WE'LL SEE A
WARMING TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. THERE'S DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
GUIDANCE WITH ABOUT 30% OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE, ABOUT 55% OF
SOLUTIONS SHOW A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN BUT BRING THE HIGH PRESSURE
CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EITHER OUTCOME WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND, BUT THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE REMAINING 20% OF
SOLUTIONS HAVE THE PATTERN SHIFTED FARTHER WEST, WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. STAY TUNED AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO
11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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