351
FXUS66 KMFR 141316
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
616 AM PDT THU MAY 14 2026
DISCUSSION
JUST SOME MARINE STRATUS FILLING IN A FEW VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES NOTABLY COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. WE'LL SEE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUE FOR TODAY
AS HIGHS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70'S. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL FLY
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, YET WE'LL REMAIN DRY
HERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A DRY COLD FRONT
LAGGING BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH MORE
NORTHWEST FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMALS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND WE SHOULD SEE MORE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS BUILD UPS
DURING THE DAY WEST OF THE CASCADES.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AROUND COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. IT SEEMS THIS COOLER
UNSTABLE AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT ALOFT DUE TO A TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS TO FORM THERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY, THIS TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH
EAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND PULL IN SOME DRIER CONTINENTAL
AIR FROM OUR NORTH EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 30'S IN MANY OF OUR VALLEYS WEST
OF THE CASCADES AND BELOW FREEZING EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THEREFORE, WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE HOW LOW THESE
TEMPERATURES END UP FALLING. THE PROBABILITY FOR TEMPERATURES <32
DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT IN MEDFORD IS ABOUT 10%.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL PAN OUT WITH SOME ENSEMBLES PREDICTING SLIGHTLY WETTER
SOLUTIONS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. EVEN IF THE DO
END UP OCCURING, THEY WON'T BE REALLY WET AS WE WOULD ONLY SEE A
FEW TENTHS OF INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MOST OF NEXT
WEEK WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH A RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC STARTING TO
SETTLE OVER OREGON.
AVIATION...14/12Z TAFS.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE STARTING TO SETTLE
IN AROUND NORTH BEND AND ROSEBURG THIS MORNING. THOSE WILL CLEAR UP
AS WE MIX OUT DURING THE DAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOWER CEILINGS TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE MORE LIKELY, ALTHOUGH IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER SOME
HEAVIER RAIN ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT THURSDAY, MAY 14, 2026
INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATER THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE, STEEP SEAS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST SWELL COMBINES WITH WIND SEAS TO BRING ELEVATED WAVE
HEIGHTS. NORTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
MEANWHILE, A HIGHER (7-9 FT) NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDS INTO THE WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-
370.
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