692
FXUS66 KMFR 021901
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1201 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...02/18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE TYPICAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MVFR CEILINGS
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WEST OF THE CASCADES AFTER 03/12Z WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. /BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 637 AM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026/
DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN OREGON WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY. COASTAL CITIES WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
HIGH 60S, WHILE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL REACH THE HIGH 80S TO LOW
90S. EAST SIDE VALLEYS AND BASINS WILL BE IN THE HIGH 70S TO LOW
80S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE SAFELY BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE
DAY. MEDFORD REACHED 102 IN JUNE 2ND, 1924. RECORD HIGHS FOR OTHER
AREAS ARE GENERALLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY'S FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, PUSHING
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AWAY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL HELP TO COOL DAYTIME
HIGHS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH. JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (10-
20% CHANCES) IN NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. ZONAL FLOW FOLLOWS BEHIND
THE FRONT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. LONG-
TERM MODELS ARE STILL DISAGREEING ON HOW THIS LOW WILL BEHAVE, WITH
ECMWF IMAGERY KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS IS
EXPECTING A SPLIT TROUGH TO DEVELOP. NEITHER OUTCOME LOOKS TO BRING
ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO THE AREA. IF THE LOW STAYS TO THE NORTH,
SOME LIGHT COASTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MORNING. OF
COURSE, DIVERGING MODEL RUNS RESULTS IN DIVERGING OUTCOMES BEYOND
THIS WEEKEND. BUT A TREND OF SOMEWHAT MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AS NEITHER MODEL EXPECTS ANYTHING TOO
DISRUPTIVE AT THIS POINT. -TAD
MARINE...STEEP SEAS ARE LIMITED TO OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THIS MORNING. ALL
WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS RAMP UP BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY, LIKELY BRINGING STEEP SEAS TO
AREAS FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT MONDAY JUNE 1, 2026...A WARM AND
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS (EASTERLY OVER TERRAIN), AND TYPICALLY DRY MINIMUM HUMIDITIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE
A MOSTLY DRY FRONT, WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE CASCADES, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE CASCADES, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF CRATER LAKE. INSTABILITY
IS WEAK, AND WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE, IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP, MUCH LESS THUNDERSTORMS, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT FORTUNATELY HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND HIGHER, SO WE SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO NEAR OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
ANOTHER, WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY FRONT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, WITH GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HUMIDITIES AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE ANY THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, BUT MAY DROP JUST TO THOSE THRESHOLDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FAR EAST SIDE, NAMELY EASTERN MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. -BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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