569
FXUS66 KMFR 022002
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
102 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
DISCUSSION
THERE ARE PLENTY OF CIRRUS CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING HIGHER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HERE IN MEDFORD, WE'RE ABOUT 7 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH US TOWARDS HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90'S UNDER THIS THERMAL TROUGH AND SPOTTY HIGH CLOUD
COVER.
BY TONIGHT, NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE REGION. THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL TAKE ON A
NOTABLE NEGATIVE TILT EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE POP FORECAST
INCREASES SLIGHTLY TO A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST.
HOWEVER, THE AIR DRIES OUT FARTHER INLAND AND THE POP FORECAST
DROPS TO 1-2% FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE DAY.
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES HAVE
A VERY LOW CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER IS AGAIN QUITE LOW AROUND 5% FOR SECTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY.
ENSEMBLES ARE PREDICTING THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WELL TO OUR EAST
OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GFS
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDING NEAR ROCK CREEK(RCK) DOES HAVE ~200 J/KG
OF CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY(CAPE) WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, WE FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE WITH THE 5%
CHANCE GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE AND LOW AMOUNT OF CAPE.
THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SOME COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND LOWER AND HIT THE UPPER
30'S EAST OF THE CASCADES AND UPPER 40'S WEST OF THE CASCADES.
HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL BE ROUGHLY THE SAME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
FLOW PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WE SEE MORE
TROUGHING AROUND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH
A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THINGS DRY OUT
CONSIDERABLY THE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE AREAS ON
SATURDAY. THE FOCUS OF THIS RAIN WILL REALLY BE NORTHERN OREGON
BASED ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLE RUNS. THEREFORE, NO WEATHER RISKS IN
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NOTHING POPS OUT IN THE EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS WELL.
-SMITH
AVIATION...02/18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE TYPICAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MVFR CEILINGS
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WEST OF THE CASCADES AFTER 03/12Z WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 1245 PM PDT TUESDAY, JUNE 2, 2026
A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY,
DISRUPTING THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
IMPROVED CONDITIONS UNDER SUB-ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS. WEST-
NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH SEAS BEING
SWELL DOMINATED, THE LONGER PERIOD WILL KEEP SEAS FROM BEING STEEP.
SWELL LOWERS A BIT ON THURSDAY, BUT NORTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, RESULTING IN STEEP SEAS FROM GOLD BEACH
SOUTHWARD. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, ONCE AGAIN DISRUPTING THE GUSTY NORTH WIND PATTERN, SO
EXPECT IMPROVED CONDITIONS AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS COULD RETURN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BUT THE
PATTERN REPEATS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STEEP SEAS AGAIN ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BR-Y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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