171
FXUS66 KMFR 051151
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
451 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...05/12Z TAFS
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING ALONG THE COAST (ESPECIALLY COOS COUNTY), AND ALSO IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN, WHILE VFR PREVAILS ELSEWHERE TODAY. THE LOW
CLOUDS BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. EXPECT BREEZY N-NW
WINDS TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PEAK GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL BE COMMON, MAYBE UP TO 30 KT IN THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS. ANOTHER DEEPER MARINE PUSH IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME
CLOUDS INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MORNING. MVFR SHOULD BE MORE
COMMON ACROSS NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT THE CLOUDS SPILL OVER
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND LIKELY BANK UP AGAINST THE SISKIYOUS. SO, BE
AWARE OF POTENTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MISTY, LIGHT AND/OR SPOTTY. -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 243 AM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
*WARM TODAY WITH A BREEZY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WEST OF THE CASCADES
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL, WHILE MOST
EAST SIDE AREAS AND NE CAL WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.
*UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT/SATURDAY. BREEZY AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT 5-10F COOLER WEST SIDE AND 10-15F
COOLER EAST SIDE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS COAST NORTH OF BLANCO AND IN
NW DOUGLAS COUNTY. NO RAIN ELSEWHERE.
*MUCH COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORCAL. COLDER WEST SIDE
VALLEYS (ILLINOIS/APPLEGATE/SHASTA/SCOTT) COULD DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. SUNNY, LESS BREEZY AND MILDER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
*STRONG UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOLER CONDITIONS MON-TUE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT COULD LINGER INTO WED.
*LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HINTING AT A POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE LATE NEXT
WEEK AND/OR NEXT WEEKEND (JUN 13-16).
DISCUSSION...MARINE STRATUS WILL BE MOSTLY AT THE COAST NORTH OF
BLANCO AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING. TODAY,
WITH GENERAL WSW ALOFT, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE VERY NEAR TO JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE, WITH THE TYPICAL BREEZES IN
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OFFSHORE OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA, APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY, AND WHILE THE CENTER OF LOW ITSELF
PASSES OVER WASHINGTON, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING OVER OUR AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DEEPER MARINE PUSH
SATURDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON (BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS). THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES (PERHAPS
SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE REST OF THE COAST). AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F LOWER (COMPARED TO TODAY) WEST OF
THE CASCADES AND 10-15F LOWER OVER THE EAST SIDE.
AREAS IN MODOC, LAKE, AND KLAMATH COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS
POTENTIALLY DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. EVEN THE TYPICALLY COLDER WEST SIDE VALLEYS LIKE THE
ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, SHASTA AND SCOTT VALLEYS, COULD SEE TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST, SEASONAL WARMTH RETURNS
UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING SUNDAY, THEN ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVES LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH VARIES GREATLY
ACROSS THE MODEL SUITES IN BOTH TIMING AND TRACK, WITH SOME
PASSING THE CENTER OF A CLOSED LOW OVER WASHINGTON THEN INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND OTHERS DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH TO BRING THE
LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN. BOTH SCENARIOS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES (BY JUNE STANDARDS), BUT
VARY GREATLY IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND NATURE: THE NORTHERLY
TRACK TRENDING MORE TOWARDS LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES, WHILE A
SOUTHERLY TRACK LEADS TO MUCH HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE, THE VARIANCE IN TRACK WILL
MEAN QUITE A QUITE VARIABLE QPF. SOME AREAS COULD SEE WETTING
RAINFALL, WHILE OTHERS, MAYBE NOT SO MUCH.
COOLER WEATHER AND SHOWER RISK COULD LAST INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN
THINGS DRY OUT LATE NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST JUN 13-16TH, WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE REGION'S FIRST
SIGNIFICANT AND EXTENDED HEAT WAVE. RIGHT NOW, MODEL PROBABILITIES
OF GREATER THAN 90F HERE IN MEDFORD EXCEED 50% BY SATURDAY WITH
AN 80% CHANCE BOTH SUN/MON. A SMALL PERCENTAGE (15-20%) OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE ECMWF) EVEN SHOW >100F.
BUT THERE'S STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
TO SAY MUCH MORE THAN THAT. -SPILDE
AVIATION...05/06Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
EXPECT SOUTHERN COOS COUNTY NEAR POWERS WHERE STRATUS IS
DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT (10-12Z) MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, AND AREAS IN LINCOLN CITY ARE ALREADY
SEEING THIS. THIS WILL OCCUR MAINLY AT THE COAST, BUT SCATTERED
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SPEEDS STRENGTHENING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE...UPDATED 235 AM PDT FRIDAY, JUNE 5, 2026...NORTH WINDS
AND SEAS WILL LOWER TODAY, BUT INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. SOUTH WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN. THEN, LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS RETURN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH COULD BRING STRONGER NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS
MORNING FOR PZZ356-376.
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