262
FXUS66 KMFR 061131
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
431 AM PDT SAT JUN 6 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS:
* LIGHT SHOWERS IN DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.
* COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A FROST AND FREEZE RISK,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN MADE.
* AFTER AN AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST, AND ALL AREAS HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN BY
MONDAY EVENING.
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT MOST AREAS HAVE LOWER CLOUDS WHILE CIRRUS MOVES
EAST OF THE CASCADES AS AN UPPER LOW ARRIVES TODAY. THIS UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON THIS
MORNING. FROM CENTRAL COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AND NORTH, THERE IS
A 10-25% CHANCE FOR A SHOWER STARTING AT 5 AM. AS THE DAY GOES ON,
THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EAST, AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF CLOUDINESS, PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FOCUSED
TODAY IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES WHILE CLEARER SKIES PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH NOT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE RAIN, EVERYWHERE
WILL HAVE A DIP IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THIS MEANS MID-/UPPER 50S AT THE COAST, MID-60S/LOW 70S WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND LOW/MID-60S EAST.
NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH CLEARER SKIES TONIGHT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES. PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS VALLEY HAVE A 20-30%
PROBABILITY FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH FROST TERRITORY. HOWEVER, EAST
SIDE IS WHERE THE THREAT IS LARGEST. THERE IS A 70-80% PROBABILITY
FOR MOST OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES TO COOL TO 32 DEGREES OR
COOLER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THAT, A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE AREAS FROM 2 AM-9 AM SUNDAY. OTHER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES, INCLUDING EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND MODOC COUNTY, ARE
UNDER A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME. PLEASE SEE NPWMFR
FOR MORE DETAILS AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT YOUR PLANTS
FROM THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHER PRESSURE MAKES A SHORT RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL, MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH 40S/LOW 50S WEST AND MID-/UPPER
30S EAST. AS THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES AT THE COAST MONDAY, RAIN
CHANCES RETURN. THROUGH THE START OF THE DAY RAINFALL WILL MOSTLY
IMPACT LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
IT SPREADS FARTHER EAST. THE COAST AND WESTERN JOSEPHINE AND
SISKIYOU COUNTIES WILL SEE THE MOST RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ALSO SEEING FAVORABLE RAINFALL IN THE CASCADES MONDAY EVENING. -
HERMANSEN
LONG TERM
ONCE THIS LOW PASSES THROUGH, WE'LL SEE TROUGHING IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH DEEPER NORTH WEST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC
FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING TUESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY SET UP
BEHIND THIS VERY DEEP TROUGH AROUND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AND PUSH TEMPERATURES HIGHER. HEADING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND,
500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AND MOVE INTO THE 97.5TH PERCENTILE
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, WE'LL LIKELY BE PUSHING 100 HERE IN
MEDFORD. THE NBM ONLY HAS A 35% CHANCE OF SURPASSING TRIPLE DIGITS
AT KMFR.
AVIATION...06/12Z TAFS
THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN ARE SEEING
SPOTS OF SCATTERED MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING, AND THE ROGUE VALLEY
INTO MEDFORD HAS THE LOWEST VFR CEILINGS AS OF NOW. HOWEVER, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS STARTING TO BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MEDFORD AND
KLAMATH FALLS TERMINALS. -HERMANSEN
MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT SATURDAY, JUNE 6, 2026
NORTH WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO BE FOUND IN THE
OUTER WATERS TOWARDS FLORENCE. SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. THEN, LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING MARINE HAZARDS NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS BUILD THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ082>085.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ084.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
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