531
FXUS66 KMFR 062102
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
202 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2026
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING WEST OF THE CASCADES AS SOME SURFACE STATIONS
ARE REPORTING 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR AROUND
ROSEBURG. CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN STICKING AROUND DUE TO SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. AS FOR
TONIGHT, COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE CASCADES
WITH FROST COVERING MANY LOCATIONS WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES
IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES NEAR CHEMULT, CRESCENT AND
SILVER LAKE. KLAMATH FALLS AND LAKEVIEW HAVE A 50% CHANCE OF
SEEING TEMPERATURES < 32F TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO SPORADIC
CLOUD COVER AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. EVEN SO, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A REALLY WEAK RIDGE BRIEFLY SETTING UP. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH END UP RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME RAIN STARTING TO FALL ALONG COASTAL AREAS. MEANWHILE,
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON THAT HIGHER RAIN
SOLUTION WE TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF 12Z ENS
MEMBERS SHOW A SURFACE LOW STARTING TO SPIN UP OFF THE OREGON
COAST. MOST OF THEM PUSH IT A BIT FARTHER TO OUR NORTH NEAR
ASTORIA AND PORTLAND, YET A FEW BRING THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH, WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO MORE RAIN THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL, WE'RE LOOKING AT A SOLID 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER TOTALS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDFORD IS OF COURSE A DRY
SPOT, YET WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN HERE TOO AS POPS ARE >90%. A
WETTING RAIN INDEED FOR EARLY JUNE. MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS RAIN.
ONCE THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH, SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. THE RAIN WILL BE
NOTABLY LIGHTER AND THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE <5%. NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO MAKE IT TO -10C BASED ON THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, SO BASICALLY NO ELECTRIFICATION OF THE CLOUD. SHOWERS
SHOULD ALSO BE VERY SHALLOW AND LIGHT BASED ON SMALL AMOUNTS OF
CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY(CAPE) IN THOSE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE TO <10% ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD WITH THE DEPARTING LONG WAVE
TROUGH.
WE'LL SEE A THERMAL TROUGH STARTING TO BUILD ALONG THE OREGON
COASTLINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 10 TO 15 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS
OFF THE CASCADES AND WELL DEFINED INVERTED 850 MB HEIGHTS. MAIN
IMPACTS FOR US WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRYING CONDITIONS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ODDS OF 100 DEGREES
HAVE DECREASED ON THE OTHER HAND. WE NOW HAVE A 25% CHANCE TO
BREAK INTO THE 100'S ON SATURDAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA.
-SMITH
AVIATION...06/18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING, THOUGH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
COMMON ALONG/WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE SISKIYOUS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, BUT STRATUS WILL LIKELY
LINGER ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WHERE LOW END VFR AND
POSSIBLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD
BE SOME SCATTERED STRATUS SOUTH OF THE ROGUE-UMPQUA DIVIDE, BUT VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT SATURDAY, JUNE 6, 2026
GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY, STRONGEST SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST SWELL DOMINATED TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF PISTOL RIVER WHERE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS COULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF STEEP SEAS BEYOND 1 TO 2 NM
FROM SHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH, HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...CONSIDERING SEAS WILL BE SWELL DOMINATED
NORTH OF GOLD BEACH, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS WAS CANCELED WHILE THE HEADLINE WAS EXPANDED CLOSER TO SHORE
SOUTH OF PISTOL RIVER.
WIND EASE OVERALL ON SUNDAY WITH SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR ALL AREAS MONDAY MORNING. NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO, HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (GALES?) ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NEWPORT AND ASTORIA. STEEP SEAS ARE VERY LIKELY,
WITH VERY STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE NORTH CAPE BLANCO IF WINDS ARE
STRONGER.
IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE RETURN OF A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THAT LIKELY PERSISTS INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. EXPECT THE RETURN OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP
TO VERY STEEP SEAS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ082>085.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ084.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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