037
FXUS66 KMFR 070534
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1034 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING WEST OF THE CASCADES AS SOME SURFACE STATIONS
ARE REPORTING 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR AROUND
ROSEBURG. CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN STICKING AROUND DUE TO SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. AS FOR
TONIGHT, COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE CASCADES
WITH FROST COVERING MANY LOCATIONS WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES
IN MUCH OF KLAMATH COUNTY AND NORTHERN/WESTERN LAKE COUNTY NEAR
CHILOQUIN, SPRAGUE RIVER, BLY, DAIRY, CHEMULT, CRESCENT AND SILVER
LAKE. KLAMATH FALLS AND LAKEVIEW HAVE A 60% CHANCE OF SEEING
TEMPERATURES < 32F TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO SPORADIC
CLOUD COVER AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. EVEN SO, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A REALLY WEAK RIDGE BRIEFLY SETTING UP. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH END UP RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME RAIN STARTING TO FALL ALONG COASTAL AREAS. MEANWHILE,
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON THAT HIGHER RAIN
SOLUTION WE TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF 12Z ENS
MEMBERS SHOW A SURFACE LOW STARTING TO SPIN UP OFF THE OREGON
COAST. MOST OF THEM PUSH IT A BIT FARTHER TO OUR NORTH NEAR
ASTORIA AND PORTLAND, YET A FEW BRING THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH, WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO MORE RAIN THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL, WE'RE LOOKING AT A SOLID 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH LOWER TOTALS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEDFORD IS OF COURSE A DRY
SPOT, YET WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN HERE TOO AS POPS ARE >90%. A
WETTING RAIN INDEED FOR EARLY JUNE. MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS RAIN.
ONCE THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH, SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. THE RAIN WILL BE
NOTABLY LIGHTER AND THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE <5%. NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO MAKE IT TO -10C BASED ON THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, SO BASICALLY NO ELECTRIFICATION OF THE CLOUD. SHOWERS
SHOULD ALSO BE VERY SHALLOW AND LIGHT BASED ON SMALL AMOUNTS OF
CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY(CAPE) IN THOSE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE TO <10% ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD WITH THE DEPARTING LONG WAVE
TROUGH.
WE'LL SEE A THERMAL TROUGH STARTING TO BUILD ALONG THE OREGON
COASTLINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 10 TO 15 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS
OFF THE CASCADES AND WELL DEFINED INVERTED 850 MB HEIGHTS. MAIN
IMPACTS FOR US WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRYING CONDITIONS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ODDS OF 100 DEGREES
HAVE DECREASED ON THE OTHER HAND. WE NOW HAVE A 25% CHANCE TO
BREAK INTO THE 100'S ON SATURDAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION...07/06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE SISKIYOUS AND
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
INCLUDING AT ROSEBURG. LOCAL IFR/MVFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE (15%/25%
CHANCE) AT NORTH BEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE KEPT THIS OUT OF
THE TAF FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.. THEN, LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING EXPECT VFR AREAWIDE.
MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT SATURDAY, JUNE 6, 2026
GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY, STRONGEST SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST SWELL DOMINATED TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF PISTOL RIVER WHERE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS COULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF STEEP SEAS BEYOND 1 TO 2 NM
FROM SHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SUCH, HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...CONSIDERING SEAS WILL BE SWELL DOMINATED
NORTH OF GOLD BEACH, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS WAS CANCELED WHILE THE HEADLINE WAS EXPANDED CLOSER TO SHORE
SOUTH OF PISTOL RIVER.
WIND EASE OVERALL ON SUNDAY WITH SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR ALL AREAS MONDAY MORNING. NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO, HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (GALES?) ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NEWPORT AND ASTORIA. STEEP SEAS ARE VERY LIKELY,
WITH VERY STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE NORTH CAPE BLANCO IF WINDS ARE
STRONGER.
IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE RETURN OF A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THAT LIKELY PERSISTS INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. EXPECT THE RETURN OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP
TO VERY STEEP SEAS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ082>085.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ084.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
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