069
FXUS66 KMFR 071210
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
510 AM PDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SHORT TERM
KEY POINTS:
* A FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM
FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
* AFTER THIS AFTERNOON'S NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE WARMER.
* RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AT THE COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST, AND ALL AREAS HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN BY TOMORROW
EVENING.
* RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING TAKES CONTROL
AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND.
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF LAKE
COUNTY HAVE STRATUS CLOUDS, BUT OTHERWISE CLEARER SKIES PREVAIL. THE
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF KLAMATH
COUNTY ARE IN THE MID-20S, AND LOW/MID-30S ARE SEEN IN PORTIONS OF
NE SISKIYOU COUNTY AND MODOC COUNTY. PLEASE SEE NPWMFR FOR MORE
DETAILS. MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES ARE IN THE 40S,
ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID-
30S.
HIGHER PRESSURE MAKES A SHORT RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL, MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S. TONIGHT
WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH 40S/LOW 50S WEST AND MID-/UPPER 30S
EAST. AS THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES AT THE COAST TOMORROW, RAIN CHANCES
RETURN. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE COAST, AND BETWEEN 11-
14Z THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND PUSH INLAND TO
REACH THE CASCADES. THIS MOVEMENT IS FASTER THAN RECENT MODELS,
AND THIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES WHILE MORE PEOPLE ARE
HEADING OUT IN THE MORNING.
THE COAST AND WESTERN JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES
WILL SEE THE MOST RAINFALL EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE ALSO SEEING
FAVORABLE RAINFALL IN THE CASCADES INTO THE EVENING. BETWEEN 5 AM
MONDAY AND THE END OF THE DAY THE COAST COULD RECEIVE NEAR ~0.50" IN
COOS COUNTY WHILE OTHER COASTAL LOCATIONS (CURRY COUNTY) COULD REACH
1.25"-1.50". FROM PROSPECT AND NORTH IN THE CASCADES, MONDAY RAIN
TOTALS COULD REACH 0.25"-0.50". THE UMPQUA BASIN IS THE AREA MOST
FAVORED TO SEE SOME RAIN, WITH A 70-80% CHANCE TO SEE 0.20". CAPE IS
NOT FAVORABLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME, SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE BELOW
15%.
THIS FRONT WILL COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE 50S/60S ONCE
MORE. THERE WILL BE STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY, IN THE
CASCADES, IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE LONGEST EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO MONDAY
EVENING, AND THIS IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL TURN LIGHTER. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY, AND THIS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ON THE
CASCADES AND AREAS WEST.
-HERMANSEN
LONG TERM
WE'LL SEE A THERMAL TROUGH STARTING TO BUILD ALONG THE
OREGON COASTLINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 10 TO 15 KNOT EASTERLY
WINDS OFF THE CASCADES AND WELL DEFINED INVERTED 850 MB HEIGHTS.
MAIN IMPACTS FOR US WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRYING
CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ODDS OF
100 DEGREES HAVE DECREASED ON THE OTHER HAND. WE NOW HAVE A 25%
CHANCE TO BREAK INTO THE 100'S ON SATURDAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION...07/12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE SISKIYOUS AND SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. CLOUDIER SKIES WILL BUILD TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
THAT ARRIVES TOMORROW. THE NEXT TAF UPDATE WILL SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF
TOMORROW MORNING'S RAINFALL. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AS WELL. -HERMANSEN
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SUNDAY, JUNE 7, 2026
WIND EASE
TODAY WITH SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR
ALL AREAS MONDAY MORNING, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (GALES?)
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ONSHORE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NEWPORT AND ASTORIA. STEEP SEAS ARE
VERY LIKELY, WITH VERY STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE NORTH CAPE BLANCO IF
WINDS ARE STRONGER.
IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE RETURN OF A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THAT LIKELY PERSISTS INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. EXPECT THE RETURN OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP
TO VERY STEEP SEAS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029>031.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029>031.
CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ082>085.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ084.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
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